Plane Invest for Tomorrow (Models were wrong disregard)

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Wnghs2007
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Plane Invest for Tomorrow (Models were wrong disregard)

#1 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue May 25, 2004 11:38 am

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... OUS42.KNHC
351
NOUS42 KNHC 251400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 25 MAY 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
A. 26/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 26/1400Z
D. 30.0N 65.0W
E. 26/1800Z TO 26/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP




Well this is cool :D
Last edited by Wnghs2007 on Tue May 25, 2004 3:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 25, 2004 12:14 pm

That is a test that they are doing for the past 2 weeks as the heading of those models says AL88 instead of 91L.Also the direction posted there is 290 degrees WNW but it is moving eastward around 15 degrees. :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue May 25, 2004 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby Brent » Tue May 25, 2004 12:18 pm

Sweet! Recon! :) :D
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#4 Postby wx247 » Tue May 25, 2004 12:34 pm

There is no need for recon.
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Re: Plane Invest for Tomorrow and Models for Noname

#5 Postby senorpepr » Tue May 25, 2004 12:37 pm

To piggy-back on what Luis said... since we're starting to get into hurricane season, make sure you check out the storm numbers on these models. 80-series storms are test storms. The invest we've been following is 91L. Additionally, double check the date/time stamp on satellite imagery. Just a little reminder for everyone. We don't need a bunch of hype over a test storm or a system from last season. It's happened in the past... let's just keep a watchful eye out.

As for recon... I should be around for their mission. If I am... I'll be in the chatroom posting translated data from their bulletins. With that in mind, I need to get a refresher on all the codes. =) Nonetheless, it should be a fairly desent mission out and back to Biloxi.

Wnghs2007 wrote:
221
WHXX01 KWBC 251525
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM NONAME (AL882004) ON 20040525 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040525 1200 040526 0000 040526 1200 040527 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 75.0W 26.4N 73.1W 28.5N 69.4W 29.4N 64.4W
BAMM 23.0N 75.0W 25.2N 74.0W 26.5N 72.2W 26.6N 69.8W
A98E 23.0N 75.0W 23.8N 76.4W 24.7N 76.8W 25.3N 76.9W
LBAR 23.0N 75.0W 24.8N 75.3W 26.1N 74.3W 26.7N 73.0W
SHIP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040527 1200 040528 1200 040529 1200 040530 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.5N 59.7W 31.8N 51.5W 36.5N 43.4W 43.3N 38.0W
BAMM 25.7N 67.7W 23.7N 66.7W 22.7N 68.6W 22.2N 71.8W
A98E 24.9N 77.1W 24.9N 77.1W 24.6N 77.8W 25.4N 79.6W
LBAR 26.8N 71.5W 26.5N 69.8W 26.0N 68.8W 24.1N 66.4W
SHIP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 75.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.3N LONM12 = 73.1W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 71.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....




Well this is cool :D
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#6 Postby senorpepr » Tue May 25, 2004 12:41 pm

wx247 wrote:There is no need for recon.


I must say I agree with you. This system is already moving plenty north for development. It's current position puts it over approx 75°F water, according to POES imagery. (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/PAC/20.jpg) I'm not too hopeful for this system, but it is good practice for the AFRES guys. We'll see what happens.
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Re: Plane Invest for Tomorrow and Models for Noname

#7 Postby OtherHD » Tue May 25, 2004 12:50 pm

senorpepr wrote: Just a little reminder for everyone. We don't need a bunch of hype over a test storm or a system from last season. It's happened in the past... let's just keep a watchful eye out.


TWC has done it in the past as well. I can't remember exactly what storm it was, but they looked at recon obs from a previous storm and took that to mean a current disturbance had developed.
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 25, 2004 2:45 pm

Finally, as we know in confusing situation like this one when we don't know if it is a tropical cyclone, or if it is tropical at all, there is someone always ready for the rescue. The Recon Plane, tomorrow we should know more, and I hope if something is going to form, please, form before June 1st, if will be more interesting having an off-season cyclone than during the season.

Sandy Delgado
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#9 Postby wx247 » Tue May 25, 2004 2:49 pm

I don't see the need. It is obvious that this is not going to affect anyone and isn't there a definite LLC? Hmmm...
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#10 Postby senorpepr » Tue May 25, 2004 2:58 pm

wx247 wrote:I don't see the need. It is obvious that this is not going to affect anyone and isn't there a definite LLC? Hmmm...


I really think the only reason they're investigating it is just to get back into practice of tropical systems. It's been several months since they've flew these type of missions and it's better to get "warmed up" on a non-threatening, weak system before the season gets busy. That's my take on it anyway.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 25, 2004 3:09 pm

I really think the only reason they're investigating it is just to get back into practice of tropical systems. It's been several months since they've flew these type of missions and it's better to get "warmed up" on a non-threatening, weak system before the season gets busy. That's my take on it anyway.


Do you think they will waste so much time and fuel, just to practice. I don't think so, I think they just want to see what is really happening there.

Sandy Delgado
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#12 Postby senorpepr » Tue May 25, 2004 3:22 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Do you think they will waste so much time and fuel, just to practice. I don't think so, I think they just want to see what is really happening there.


Actually, they do training missions all the time. Sometimes they fly north of the Bahamas and back to Mississippi or sometimes they just fly around the Gulf. As a matter of fact, when I was at Keesler AFB, they would take off probably once a day just to get some "time in the air."
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Re: Plane Invest for Tomorrow and Models for Noname

#13 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue May 25, 2004 3:24 pm

senorpepr wrote:To piggy-back on what Luis said... since we're starting to get into hurricane season, make sure you check out the storm numbers on these models. 80-series storms are test storms. The invest we've been following is 91L. Additionally, double check the date/time stamp on satellite imagery. Just a little reminder for everyone. We don't need a bunch of hype over a test storm or a system from last season. It's happened in the past... let's just keep a watchful eye out.

As for recon... I should be around for their mission. If I am... I'll be in the chatroom posting translated data from their bulletins. With that in mind, I need to get a refresher on all the codes. =) Nonetheless, it should be a fairly desent mission out and back to Biloxi.

Wnghs2007 wrote:
221
WHXX01 KWBC 251525
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM NONAME (AL882004) ON 20040525 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040525 1200 040526 0000 040526 1200 040527 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 75.0W 26.4N 73.1W 28.5N 69.4W 29.4N 64.4W
BAMM 23.0N 75.0W 25.2N 74.0W 26.5N 72.2W 26.6N 69.8W
A98E 23.0N 75.0W 23.8N 76.4W 24.7N 76.8W 25.3N 76.9W
LBAR 23.0N 75.0W 24.8N 75.3W 26.1N 74.3W 26.7N 73.0W
SHIP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040527 1200 040528 1200 040529 1200 040530 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.5N 59.7W 31.8N 51.5W 36.5N 43.4W 43.3N 38.0W
BAMM 25.7N 67.7W 23.7N 66.7W 22.7N 68.6W 22.2N 71.8W
A98E 24.9N 77.1W 24.9N 77.1W 24.6N 77.8W 25.4N 79.6W
LBAR 26.8N 71.5W 26.5N 69.8W 26.0N 68.8W 24.1N 66.4W
SHIP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 75.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.3N LONM12 = 73.1W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 71.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....




Well this is cool :D



Opppssss Sorry about that. Dumb me. I should have checked it. I assumed wrong for once. LOL. Well only reason I thought it was on that system was because it was made today.
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#14 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 25, 2004 3:28 pm

Concerning the recon flight, remember these two words:

"If Necessary"

Right now, it's only a possible recon flight. They won't fly out if it looks like it does today. If it's developing convection near the weak LLC then they may fly out for a look.
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