A TW to watch for next week...........

[Dean4Storms]

The Tropical Wave now near 65w in the eastern Carib. has to be the disturbed weather that the GFS is depicting late next week in the SW GOM. With the UL trough over the SW Carib. likely still in place as the TW approaches it the moisture feed could be significant enough to enhance this wave IMO. We will have to watch it come mid to late next week to see what transpires in the western Carib. with this wave.

[FWBHurricane]

Do you think the strong windshear in the GOM and Caribbean cooperate in time for this storm to develop? I have looked at alot of satellite pics and saw that the shears has been persistant and very strong.

[Josephine96]

I think my local met actually mentioned that wave a day or so ago.. He did say "by next week, the tropics may no longer be quiet"

[Anonymous]

NWS Jax Disc... Will it be moisture or something more?

.LONG TERM...SURFACE AND H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GFS INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF. BY
FRIDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY PUSH THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE TOWARDS FLORIDA. IT'S TOO SOON TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE AFTN AND EVNG CONVECTION.
&&

And tampa....

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-FRI)...UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA SUN
NIGHT AND BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER N FL/S GA KEEPING THE AREA IN SE LL FLOW WITH PLENTY OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN PLACE TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON WEST COAST SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT WILL LATER COLLIDE
WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST EXT MODELS
TRY TO SPIN UP UPPER AND SFC LOW IN WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND MOVE IT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. SFC GRADIENT WOULD TIGHTEN
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SCT
POPS ATTM AND WAIT TO SEE BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

[Josephine96]

Early forecasts may be pointing to development? It'd be nice to see.. The weather did get rough here today.. but we could always use more rain

[Anonymous]

3rd day in a row of rain here---I'd like to see more---but then again, I always like storms so... But we still need the rain too.

[Dean4Storms]

Do you think the strong windshear in the GOM and Caribbean cooperate in time for this storm to develop? I have looked at alot of satellite pics and saw that the shears has been persistant and very strong.

It is really still too far out to say with any certainty, but a better picture of this possible scenario should reveal itself come Monday or so.

[Brent]

I couldn't help but notice the low in the Northern Gulf on the models.

[vbhoutex]

At least one of our local OCM's has mentioned the probability of this system developing into something next week in the W GOM. Included are POPS at 50% Weds/thurs next week too.

[Anonymous]

I don't know if this is of any importance but weather cast did say texas may be affected by deep tropical moisture next week, but did not mention anything would be bad just some rain. It was on the NWS forecast like yesterday I think.

[Anonymous]

Tropical Wave made the 1130 TWO

Code: Select all

ABNT20 KNHC 051511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004
 
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...AND PANAMA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART
$$ 


[wx247]

Thanks for the outlook. I will be watching this along with the rest of you I am sure.

[Stormsfury]

NWS Jax Disc... Will it be moisture or something more?

.LONG TERM...SURFACE AND H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GFS INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF. BY
FRIDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY PUSH THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE TOWARDS FLORIDA. IT'S TOO SOON TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE AFTN AND EVNG CONVECTION.
&&

And tampa....

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-FRI)...UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA SUN
NIGHT AND BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER N FL/S GA KEEPING THE AREA IN SE LL FLOW WITH PLENTY OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN PLACE TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON WEST COAST SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT WILL LATER COLLIDE
WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST EXT MODELS
TRY TO SPIN UP UPPER AND SFC LOW IN WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND MOVE IT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. SFC GRADIENT WOULD TIGHTEN
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SCT
POPS ATTM AND WAIT TO SEE BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

Development potential, yes ... but right now, it looks dynamically driven with upper levels involved ...

SF

[Dean4Storms]

No matter what takes shape, the GFS is so far stuck on wanting to bring abundant moisture up northward from the Carib. into the central Gulf coast end of next week and even drag some of it eventually eastward over the northern half of Flarduh.

[Guest]

I have been watching this for a few days, and will be watching to see what happens. Here is the area of interest from June 3:
Area of Interest for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin
For June 3, 2004
updated at 11:35pm/et
by
Barometer Bob Brookens
Area of Interest Update!
Tropical Cyclone development is not anticipated in the short term.
We will however be watching a tropical wave in the Atlantic, and a tropical wave mid week next week exiting the Caribbean and moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Nothing defined yet from either of these two areas in the forecast models.

The question is, will everything come together.
Last year we had Tropical Storm Bill, and it doesn't surprise me to see this wave exiting the Caribbean.
Watch for my area of interest tonight.

[Dean4Storms]

Was I on top of this early or what??????

[Stormcenter]

You da man Dean4storms

[Lindaloo]

Was I on top of this early or what??????

As always! Good job Dean.

[Aquawind]