SURPRISE! EPAC SYSTEM IS DOWN

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HURAKAN
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SURPRISE! EPAC SYSTEM IS DOWN

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 08, 2004 10:12 pm

According to the NHC the system off the western Mexican coasts is not considerated anymore a tropical disturbance and the possibility for development over the next few days has been dropped. I believe the current status of the disturbance is just of a tropical low. Looks like TD-2E or Blas are not in the near future.

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SANDY DELGADO
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 09, 2004 5:47 am

Why are you surprised? Without convection over the LLC nothing happens and this was the case as the shear was a bit strong.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jun 09, 2004 6:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby Matthew5 » Wed Jun 09, 2004 6:05 am

The shear finally won over the system. But for a good 24 hours, it looked pretty good with a well defined "LLCC" and nice convection. Which it came with in a step of becoming a tropical depression. I think that this was a close enough for a tropical depression, but that is my thinking of it.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 09, 2004 6:16 am

Yes MR SHEAR still rules in both the EPAC and in the Atlantic.I can see the words (boring shear) comming :) .
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EPAC

#5 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Jun 09, 2004 6:56 am

Alot of sites are saying average to a little above average this year. The EPAC has not had a name yet and it's almost a month in to their season. Usually, when the EPAC is slow/dead then the Atlantic will boom but there were times when they were both active or vice versa. Will have to wait to see how it pans out in the Atlantic/Carribean and Gulf but it is starting out just the way it should. :roll:
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#6 Postby Steve H. » Wed Jun 09, 2004 7:39 am

Yes its early, but when things don't crank in the PAC its usually a busy Atlantic. We'll see. Think the forecasters who dropped their numbers are smoking a big fat one. Time will tell.
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Re: EPAC

#7 Postby wx247 » Wed Jun 09, 2004 7:43 am

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Alot of sites are saying average to a little above average this year. The EPAC has not had a name yet and it's almost a month in to their season. Usually, when the EPAC is slow/dead then the Atlantic will boom but there were times when they were both active or vice versa. Will have to wait to see how it pans out in the Atlantic/Carribean and Gulf but it is starting out just the way it should. :roll:


CORRECTION: We have already had the A Storm in the EPAC.
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Re: EPAC

#8 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:22 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Alot of sites are saying average to a little above average this year. The EPAC has not had a name yet and it's almost a month in to their season. Usually, when the EPAC is slow/dead then the Atlantic will boom but there were times when they were both active or vice versa. Will have to wait to see how it pans out in the Atlantic/Carribean and Gulf but it is starting out just the way it should. :roll:


Yes, there have been times when both the EPAC and Atlantic were slow.

1977:
Atlantic: 6/5/1
EPAC: 8/4/0

There have also been times when both have been active.

1990:
Atlantic: 14/8/1
EPAC: 20/16/6
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