Tropical update 6-9-04

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good Wednesday everyone. The tropics are becoming a bit more active today, especially in the western Pacific where a new tropical storm 08W has developed over the past 24 hours about 270 nautical miles southeast of Manila in the Philippines. Tropical Storm 08W is moving toward the west and should strengthen slowly over the next few days. Meanwhile Typhoon Conson continues to track northeasterly just missing the island of Taiwan thank goodness. A tropical system combined with 13,000 foot mountains in Taiwan wouldn't be a good thing at all. Maximum sustained winds with Typhoon Conson are near 105 mph with higher gusts. This system should weaken to a tropical storm as it approaches southern Japan with very heavy rain over the next 3-4 days or so.

Shifting our focus to the eastern Pacific reveals a disturbance just off the west coast of Mexico. Convection has been waxing and waning with this. However if this system persists, it could potentially slowly develop into a tropical depression over the next day or two with somewhat more favorable winds aloft. Although southwesterly shear is present with this also. Thus any development with this sytem appears slim at this point.

An area that won't see tropical development will be the Gulf Of Mexico, Caribbean, and Atlantic basin. There are three areas of thunderstorms, one in the western Gulf with a moisture surge that is moving through Texas and the southern Plains. Winds aloft are from the west, thus no tropical development. There is a second area of convection over the western Caribbean. But once again west wind aloft of 60-80 mph is shering this system, thus precluding tropical development. Finally another area of convection is near the Leeward and Windward Islands. Once again strong west wind aloft of 40-50 mph is precluding any tropical development. Thus all is quiet in the Atlantic basin today.

That's the tropics for this time.

Jim