Houston 2am discussion

[TexasSam]

BY WED...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL
DEPEND ON LOCATION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING CONVECTION IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DRIFT W/NW. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS/RAIN
CHC DURING THE WED-FRI PD NEXT WEEK BECASUE OF THIS FEATURE.

[PTrackerLA]

Lake Charles and New Orleans are talking about it too.

Lake Charles:

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE YUCATAN PEN THIS MORNING IS MOVING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF. SEVERAL DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS TO HOW THIS WILL MOVE. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS ETA WHICH
MOVES THE MOISTURE INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF GETTING CAUGHT UP AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT DIGS DOWN INTO THE REGION AND PULLS THE
MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH...BUT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AT THIS
TIME.


New Orleans:

.LONG TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME SINCE MID LEVEL
VORTICY IS SHOWING UP ON WV IMAGERY IN NW CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE INITIALIZING THIS
FEATURE AND DEEPEN IT SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF. SEA SFC
TEMPS ARE ALREADY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY AT 83 TO 85
DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND IN THE LOWER 80S OVER
THE WESTERN HALF. WILL ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN POSITION OF WEAK LOW
AS IT APPROACHES...TO THE EAST...IT SHOULD BRING CONTINENTAL DRY AIR
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOWER THAN WE ALREADY HAVE OVER THE REGION BUT
OVER OR TO THE WEST WOULD BRING A MUCH WETTER SCENARIO AND BRING POP
NUMBERS UPWARD DRASTICALLY...FOR THIS REASON WE ARE LEAVING NUMBERS
RIGHT WHERE THEY CURRENTLY RESIDE.

[Dean4Storms]

And Mobile..........



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
256 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEMS LIFT INTO
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE EAST COAST...AS
MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY FLOWS OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING GENERALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
INITIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE
DEVELOPED EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE HOSPITABLE. FOR TODAY...SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY
LINGERING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY. SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE
CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA.

A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND
AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GEM ARE MOVING A MID LEVEL SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
UP ACROSS THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW AS WELL BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THIS COMES TO PASS...EXPANDED CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOTICED BY THE DAY SHIFT
BUT WILL HAVE TO STAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL WE GET MORE
DATA TO SUPPORT THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT.

&&

.EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL
BE THE BIG PLAYER OF THE EXTENDED...IF IT UNFOLDS...AND A TRAILING
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTHEAST STILL LOOKS SET
TO TRY TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO
LIMIT POPS TO JUST GOOD CHANCE FOR NOW THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST COAST BY MID WEEK...SUPPORTING CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&