From MIA discussion

[Vortex]

THE AVN TRIES TO FORECAST A LOW DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF THE

YUCATAN LATER SUNDAY AND MOVES IT NORTH TO THE WESTERN PENINSULA BY

MONDAY EVENING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IF THE TRACK

CHANGES.

[newt3]

Western penisula? Are you talking about Penisula of Florida? I live in the Panhandle. Getting interesting to say the least.

[PTrackerLA]

Hmm, how do you get to the western peninsula after moving north of the Yucatan? Anyways I have no idea where this might go but if I had to guess I'd say middle Texas coast-panhandle of Florida. Also we must still pay close attention to this system even though it's very early in the season. Take a look back at hurricane Audrey if you think you can't have big hurricanes in the gulf in June .

[KatDaddy]

Trying to get some needed rainfall for all you Floridians

Weve had enough rain in Texas.


Here is the AVN plots

http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/3d/avn_pres_3d.html
http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/3e/avn_pres_3e.html
http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/4d/avn_pres_4d.html
http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/4e/avn_pres_4e.html
http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/5d/avn_pres_5d.html

[wxman57]

He meant western PANHANDLE, not peninsula.

[newt3]

Thanks

[HURAKAN]

Well, there is a BIG, BIG, difference from PENINSULA to PANHANDLE.

Sandy Delgado

[Johnny]

I hope you folks from Mississippi to Florida get some good rain out of this system. Us here in Southeast, Texas don't need anymore. This past Tuesday we had a gully washer at the house with high winds which laid over my corn and tomato plants. I sure don't need that again.

[Dean4Storms]

Right now the GFS is putting it more toward the Appalachicola Bay area ot the Big Bend area of FL.


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html

[GalvestonDuck]

Okay, now for my stupid question of the year --

Why is it symbolized with an "H"? I thought these were low pressure systems. Low pressure = rainy, wet weather; high pressure = dry, hot weather. Don't we watch the barometer drop during tropical development?

Is it registering high pressure at a different atmospheric level (higher up) even though the storm system has low pressure, and that's why it's symbolized with an "H"?

I know I'm looking at the forecast model track and I see where I'm watching it go. Just never quite got the H instead of L.

Thanks! Now, I'll just go back to my amateur watching and waiting and praying this season goes by without a major one making landfall.

[Stormsfury]

Okay, now for my stupid question of the year --

Why is it symbolized with an "H"? I thought these were low pressure systems. Low pressure = rainy, wet weather; high pressure = dry, hot weather. Don't we watch the barometer drop during tropical development?

Is it registering high pressure at a different atmospheric level (higher up) even though the storm system has low pressure, and that's why it's symbolized with an "H"?

I know I'm looking at the forecast model track and I see where I'm watching it go. Just never quite got the H instead of L.

Thanks! Now, I'll just go back to my amateur watching and waiting and praying this season goes by without a major one making landfall.

Shawn, that's actually a good question ... the H's that you see are precipitation maximas on the NWP outputs (and shows the maximum QPF - or precip forecast: QPF stands for Quantitive Precipitation Forecast)

This is TIME SENSITIVE ...

On the imagery below, notice the H within the red area off the West Coast of Florida with a 1.61" on it...the model output is forecasting 1.61" in a 12 hour period...

[GalvestonDuck]

Well, cool! It makes sense now. Thanks for the explanation, Mike! You rock! (And I don't just mean musically )

[ColdFront77]

THE AVN TRIES TO FORECAST A LOW DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF THE

YUCATAN LATER SUNDAY AND MOVES IT NORTH TO THE WESTERN PENINSULA BY

MONDAY EVENING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IF THE TRACK

CHANGES.

Western penisula? Are you talking about Penisula of Florida? I live in the Panhandle. Getting interesting to say the least.

He meant western PANHANDLE, not peninsula.

So, my explanation yesterday and in the last ten minutes about the flow around the high in the Gulf bringing in the southwest flow makes no sense. The statement Vortex posted above makes more sense. Apparently it doesn't.


See why I am reluctant to take part in the discussions here. I get the feeling that I am going to be "chewed out" with my probably redundant opinions that SEEM one sided.

[Josephine96]

Wherever it ends up.. I hope it brings some rain. We here in Florida could use more. Even though I've had rain every day for about the past 1 1/2 weeks now.. a lot of our grass is still brown..

Just as long as "Alex" {if it becomes that} isn't like "Allison" were' ok.. {cringes at Allison}