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[Brent]

BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING WILL
BE THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE CONVECTION AROUND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF WEAKENING SFC RIDGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THIS COMES TO
PASS...EXPANDED CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AFFECTING AT LEAST THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE BIG PLAYER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...IF IT UNFOLDS...AS
A TRAILING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
STILL LOOKS SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH LAST THREE OR
FOUR GFS RUNS BRINGING MOISTURE SLUG OUT OF GULF AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH LATEST GFS RUN DEVELOPING WEAK SFC LOW BY
EARLY MONDAY. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS FOR MONDAY UP TO LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE SFC LOW...IF IT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT THAT SETTLES ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STILL LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE COAST COAST
BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
BULK OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY
WEEKS END.