93L Model run!

[Matthew5]

506
WHXX01 KWBC 121255
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932004) ON 20040612 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040612 1200 040613 0000 040613 1200 040614 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 91.0W 23.4N 92.2W 24.2N 93.3W 25.4N 94.1W
BAMM 22.5N 91.0W 23.3N 92.5W 23.8N 93.7W 24.4N 94.5W
A98E 22.5N 91.0W 23.6N 92.5W 25.0N 93.4W 26.9N 93.4W
LBAR 22.5N 91.0W 23.8N 92.1W 25.2N 92.8W 26.9N 92.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040614 1200 040615 1200 040616 1200 040617 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 94.3W 29.4N 95.3W 32.5N 97.2W 37.0N 94.8W
BAMM 24.7N 94.8W 25.7N 95.7W 27.6N 97.8W 30.1N 100.0W
A98E 28.7N 93.1W 31.7N 91.6W 34.8N 89.9W 37.4N 82.4W
LBAR 28.4N 92.1W 31.8N 89.0W 35.9N 86.5W 39.2N 79.6W
SHIP 39KTS 43KTS 45KTS 47KTS
DSHP 39KTS 43KTS 35KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 91.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.5N LONM12 = 89.5W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 20.0N LONM24 = 87.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Anonymous]

And here it is Graphically....

[Aquawind]

Cool..Ships is always over estimating winds..But it does look impressive.. either way

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, the center is a lot further northwest than I thought. Well, most of them agree on a tropical storm. The million dollar question is: is it Alex?

[Aquawind]

As always.. The models need a good LLC point to initialize and then after a couple runs they hopefully will tighten up to give a better idea of direction..

[chadtm80]

You got some work to do ScottinVA!!! lol

[Brent]

Interesting.

What do ya'll think for the Fort Walton Beach area? A lot of rain? We will be on the east side, but some of those models take it way west, like we may only get the fringes.

[Scott_inVA]

WREL Model Map is up.

sorry for delay...mucho doo-doo going on here.

Model colors are wrong and I need to tweak for the global models to appear...should be done today. I'll post a new thread when it's cleaned up.

Scott

[Aquawind]

OMG.. It's gonna come back around !!!! woah..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2004061200

[WXBUFFJIM]

Certainly not surprising that the Florida Panhandle will see the eastern fridges of this if not just a few sctd tstms. We still got some work to do with this mid level disturbance over the southern Gulf, the first being the development of a surface low and or transfer from a mid level low down to a surface low. This definitely needs to be monitored.

Jim

[Josephine96]

So most model runs put it between Texas and Mississippi..

Us here in Florida could use the rain... Maybe it'll come this way..

[WXBUFFJIM]

Keep your fingers crossed because Florida and Georgia could really use the rain, not New Orleans, Louisiana. Now as always with model runs, they will change in the tropics as seen just yesterday with Typhoon Chanthu. Earlier depiction brought the center over the Gulf Of Tonkin and over Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. Today though the center is making landfall over central Vietnam, which is much further south than the earlier projection.

Jim

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting thing is last night it looked like all this mess would pass east of us and would we have barely elevated rain chances and I check back today and this thing has Louisiana written all over it. Wouldn't mind seeing a few inches of rain with this since it is starting to dry out over here but hopefully not another deluge like we saw in May

[PTrackerLA]

Think it's time for Lake Charles NWS to change their tone a bit about this storm. They only have 40% rain chances in our forecast right now.

WILL KEEP A WATCH AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE
YUCATAN PEN AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. THIS LOOKS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...SUMMER IS HERE FOLKS...AND ITS THE WEEKEND...TIME FOR
THE BEACH AND WARM WATERS OF A SWIMMING POOL.

Honestly though, I think this system looks worse than it did yesterday.

[Lindaloo]

Local met here would not even give the percentage of rain for Tuesday. He said it all depends on what this "weather system" does. Good call on his part.

[southerngale]

PT, Lake Charles NWS always seems a little more conservative to me than say Houston. I am on the western edge of Lake Charles' forecast area so I usually read both.

Just checked and this is Houston's mention:

WILL HAVE MORE IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION ON THE POSSIBILITY OF OUR
INCREASING POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER EDGING OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE IS BEING DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

[Rainband]

220
fxus62 ktbw 121655
afdtbw


West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
1255 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2004


Currently...88d continues to show much less coverage compared to
last several days at this time. Showers and thunderstorms that have
been forming have had little/no motion...causing some locally
heavy rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch in 30 minutes. Visible
satellite loop shows West Coast sea breeze has penetrated well inland
Pasco northward...despite the relatively weak westerly low level
flow. Expect coverage to slowly increase this afternoon over The
Interior...but flow is so light...than boundaries could allow
additional convection to form back toward the West/Coast.


Short term (tonight-mon)...the biggest forecast challenge for later
in the period will be fate of upper level circulation currently over
the northwest Caribbean/S Gulf. Models continue to show a weak middle/upper
level circulation moving northwest into the western Gulf by Monday...with a
large swath of deep layer moisture moving well east of that upper
low...stretching from the central Gulf...NE to across the Florida Panhandle
for Monday and Tuesday. The southern fringe of this moisture possibly into
the northern half of the forecast area.


For sun...the deep layer ridge is expected to remain over the forecast area...
which will again provide very light flow...with convection dominated
by afternoon sea breezes. Thus...have stuck with chance probability of precipitation (40-50%)...
similar to guidance. By Monday...given the likelihood of even higher
amounts of moisture as mentioned above...have increased probability of precipitation to
"likely" most of the area...with high end likely over the north forecast area. Maximum
temperatures should remain near normal for sun...but likely below normal for
Monday given higher probability of precipitation.


Long term (mon ngt-sat)...deep moisture over the area continues
scattered rain chances under S/SW flow as tropical feature moves well
to the NE...riding over the ridge. Upper trough to the west lifts out
Tuesday night/Wednesday allowing surface ridge to start building back in over the
region. Rain chances return to more typical scattered afternoon and
early evening thunderstorms late in the period. Kept temperatures near normal at this time.


&&


Marine...as in the public forecast...the fate of the system that is
expected to move into the Gulf will be the biggest concern. For
now...have increased winds some for later Monday and Tuesday...but still
only 10-15 kts. By tomorrow...should feel more confident in what to
do with marine winds for Monday and Tuesday.


&&


Fire weather...no highlights.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 077 091 077 089 / 20 40 30 60
fmy 074 091 076 090 / 30 40 30 60
gif 074 093 075 090 / 30 50 40 60
srq 074 089 075 087 / 10 40 20 60
bkv 071 092 073 088 / 20 40 30 70


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...none.


&&


$$


Short term...Morales
long term...jc

[Matthew5]

This system is a loss cause please don't be to upset if it fades into history tonight. Main reason is no Global models develop a real tropical cyclone. Two a upper low to the west is forming the convection with out that all you got is a weak MLC!

[Rainband]

I don't think anybody would be upset. This is just the beginning of the season

[chadtm80]

This system is a loss cause please don't be to upset if it fades into history tonight. Main reason is no Global models develop a real tropical cyclone. Two a upper low to the west is forming the convection with out that all you got is a weak MLC!

Mathew Chill out dude.. A couple of hours ago you were shouting the sky is falling.. Please dont drive us nuts like this