Scott's Model Map for Invest 93

[KatDaddy]

Us Texans do not need anymore rain.

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

[crazy4disney]

Since I am trying to move from clueless-weather-nut to educated-weather-nut what would cause each of those varied paths?

-gina-

[KatDaddy]

Each model is developed from mathmatical algorithms. These algorithim's are different based on the data being input. In turn this will create many varied solutions resulting in different forecast plots.

[cctx]

KatDaddy, I can understand where y'all in the Houston/Galveston area don't need any more rain, but down here in Corpus it wouldn't be such a bad thing. All of the major rain last week slipped right past us.

[Colin]

Two of the models take the remnants up into the Middle Atlantic...we could use that rain!

[Scott_inVA]

Since I am trying to move from clueless-weather-nut to educated-weather-nut what would cause each of those varied paths?

-gina-

Kat's reply is correct.

With the exception of the UKMET (now displayed) these are tropical or hurricane models. They are not at their best when spinning up TCs in the GOM, especially near land. Too many downstream features over CONUS also make it difficult for models to "articulate" a track so you'll frequently see this type of presentation. Best advice: take DT's sage words of wisdom: the trend is your friend...watch them shift from run to run and try to come up with a more concentrated idea.

Tweaked the colors and did get the UKie.

IF this organizes, one would doubt much rain along the west side which could indicate more QPF into central Gulf states. Interesting feature will be timing of the cold front progged through Mid-Atlantic and southeast...certain possibly the case is made excessive QPF from any system that develops rides the front with a significant rain/storm event central gulf, interior SE and up Mid-Atlantic by mid next week. *Not* a forecast...just an idea.

Scott

[HURAKAN]

Looks like each model has its own opinion.

Sandy Delgado

[Steve Cosby]

Each model is developed from mathmatical algorithms. These algorithim's are different based on the data being input. In turn this will create many varied solutions resulting in different forecast plots.

Isn't it also that each of the hurricane models are themselves based first on the data generated by the GFS? (which introduces a whole new layer of error).

[tomboudreau]

Two of the models take the remnants up into the Middle Atlantic...we could use that rain!

Actually...some parts of western PA really don't need anymore rain. We are very saturated right now from heavy rains over the past couple of weeks to about a month now. We could actually see some renewed flooding if we get a lot of heavy rainfall. The morning of our move (May 21), we recieved over 6 inches of rain in a little over 5 hour period. Everytime there is a chance of heavy or long duration rain events, NWS has considered putting most of this area under a flood watch because not much rain would be needed to start flooding up. We could go a week or 2 without much rain if you ask me. And I'm not talking just about here...folks down in WV, Kentucky, OH, TN, and Indiana are probably hoping for the same thing. Just my 2 cents.

[Anonymous]

Us Texans do not need anymore rain.

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Hmmm... some of those models are pointing towards Texas. I hope the computers making them are broken because parts of Texas have already received lots of rain. Please do not meander up here to North Texas
Mr. No Name Blob/Future Possible Tropical Depression

[Scott_inVA]

Us Texans do not need anymore rain.

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Hmmm... some of those models are pointing towards Texas. I hope the computers making them are broken because parts of Texas have already received lots of rain. Please do not meander up here to North Texas
Mr. No Name Blob/Future Possible Tropical Depression

The 12, 18 and 0Z runs are generally shifting more towards TX.
We'll see how things look by the 06/13 12Z.

Arguing agains this is nasty butt shear and dry air. But W TX and LA could get serious rain...not good news in Cajun Country.

[Yankeegirl]

I looked at this earlier this afternoon, and it was putting 2 outta the three tracks in La, now they are all in Texas.... whats the deal?? I need the rain.. so it's ok with me!!