3:00 PM EDT Special Tropical Disturbance Statement #2

[cycloneye]

No big changes this afternoon.Read the statement and any comments are welcomed.

[Matthew5]

There is zero nada chance for this to develop because of the front coming down will likely making the shear over 30+ mph. The Global models do not really went to do anything with this system. In the upper low to the west is the only thing making convection. What ever MLC this has will not have a chance

[ColdFront77]

This frontal system is expected to fall apart on Monday. Cold fronts very rarely survive into Florida between June and October.

A couple years ago, a cold front literally encompassed the Florida peninsula, it was odd to say the least.

[cycloneye]

This frontal system is expected to fall apart on Monday. Cold fronts very rarely survive into Florida between June and October.

A couple years ago, a cold front literally encompassed the Florida peninsula, it was odd to say the least.

Why do you say that cold front will fall apart? In the science of weather Tom you may do the best forecasts but things can change in a hurry in many ways.This system in the GOM can get favorable conditions in a rapid way if all factors combine to do so and viseversa the same way.

[ColdFront77]

I said the cold front is expected to fall apart, not the tropical disturbance.

[Stormcenter]

There is zero nada chance for this to develop because of the front coming down will likely making the shear over 30+ mph. The Global models do not really went to do anything with this system. In the upper low to the west is the only thing making convection. What ever MLC this has will not have a chance

All I can say is HUH!?!?!?!?

[hurricanemike]

12Z 850 mb Streamlines showing a small area of ridging forming in the Bay of Campeche.http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/QUNA00.TIF

Also 12Z 200 mb Streamlines showing a High aloft ridging ESE from SW Coastal Mexico to Central America. http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/QHQA17.TIF

12Z NOGAPS for Tropical Atlantic showing the 200 mb High moving off to the W which would tend to decrease the shear. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=ngp_troplant&prod=u20&dtg=2004061212

As for the front, its already beginning to weaken, and it should dissipiate in Central to South GA, if it makes it that far S.


Some cyclonic turning is being seen at the sfc in the SW Gulf.

[Matthew5]

There is no LLCC in the Gulf of Mexico.

[ColdFront77]

How about this thinking:

The cold front that is moving into south Georgia, stalls out and dissipates like expected and the upper level low in the western Gulf of Mexico (that obviously is important to the overall movement of the tropical disturbance in the southeastern Gulf)... gets nudged, if you will, thus the upcoming model data may be vastly different than we currently see, opposed to a minor difference.

[cycloneye]

Tom imagine if in my statement I say that the disturbance in the GOM is organizing quickly and a surface low has formed and because of that it will form into TD#1 this evening and it will be tropical storm Alex by sunday morning.Those words would make chad and David fire me from the storm2k forecast team as the statement is not true.But I have to make updates and statements based on what in reallity is going on at the moment the update is being issued looking at all the factors that may cause the system do do one thing or another thing.

[Matthew5]

Hey cycloneye how about storm2k start making its own Advisorys on tropical cyclones? Would that work that would be cool

[cycloneye]

Hey cycloneye how about storm2k start making its own Advisorys on tropical cyclones? Would that work that would be cool

I am not the boss in the storm2k forecast team as David is but he is in a mini vacation until monday but we haved made advisorys for the EPAC already with Agatha.

[ColdFront77]

Tom imagine if in my statement I say that the disturbance in the GOM is organizing quickly and a surface low has formed and because of that it will form into TD#1 this evening and it will be tropical storm Alex by sunday morning.Those words would make chad fire me from the storm2k forecast team as the statement is not true.But I have to make updates and statements based on what in reallity is going on at the moment the update is being issued looking at all the factors that may cause the system do do one thing or another thing.

I am adding my comments for continued discussion like everyone else here. Isn't that what I am supposed to do as wanting to participate in this community?

[HURAKAN]

This frontal system is expected to fall apart on Monday. Cold fronts very rarely survive into Florida between June and October.

A couple years ago, a cold front literally encompassed the Florida peninsula, it was odd to say the least.

Why do you say that cold front will fall apart? In the science of weather Tom you may do the best forecasts but things can change in a hurry in many ways.This system in the GOM can get favorable conditions in a rapid way if all factors combine to do so and viseversa the same way.

I completely agree with ColdFront77, it has been months since the last cold front came through Florida. At thsi time of the year and forward, they usually stop in the Florida Panhandle and dissipate or retrograde.

Sandy Delgado

[senorpepr]

I agree with Tom in that cold fronts have a hard time making it into Florida this time of year. However, although the front is weakening, there will still be some associated shear that will move into the northern GOM.

I will say that I do see the chances for development increasing, but I'm not betting for it yet. I'm not all that impressed with satellite. We shall see...

[ColdFront77]

The Jacksonville NWS office's latest Weather Synopsis for northeastern Florida/southeast Georgia says the cold front is now expected to move back northward as a warm front, opposed to stalling out and dissipating.

[senorpepr]

...interesting...

Something definately worth watching.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure what "cold front" y'all are talking about. There's a front up in Nebraska extending NE through the Great Lakes. That front will have a hard time even making it as far south as Tennessee. It won't come anywhere near the GUlf coast states. Looks like it'll stall out from southern Missouri to Ohio on Sunday/Monday.

[cycloneye]

Chris there is forecast of a shortwave trough going down to the GOM and creating more shear in a couple of days maybe that is what some are eluding to.

[wxman57]

Latest high-res visible shows increasing separation between the weak LLC and the convection. Not good for development. For this thing to develop, it needs persistent convection near the center not 100 miles east of the center.