Too Weak

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

SSD dvorak started to estimate for 93L based on sat images.

[ColdFront77]

Too Weak, but indicated.

[lilbump3000]

Does this mean there is some type of low level circulation but its a very weak one.

[Hurricanehink]

That sounds right lilbump. The TPC discussion indicated a low level circulation, so I guess it is just a very weak one.

[Josephine96]

Well.. I hope the circulation strengthens a little bit.. It'd be nice to see a June storm..

[lilbump3000]

The system looks very impressive on the vis loop were dvorak is pointing out a weak low level circulation. I wouldnt be surprise by later on tonight its a T1.0 or a little higher.

[PTrackerLA]

I do think there is a very weak LLC that has formed becaue I see inflow into it from the southwest and west. It might never become a classified system but one things for sure, there's a huge blob of convection heading towards the gulf coast .

[Brent]

The Forecast Discussions from MOB and BMX NWS say NO EVIDENCE of a Surface circulation. These came out 60 to 90 minutes ago.

[Wnghs2007]

The Forecast Discussions from MOB and BMX NWS say NO EVIDENCE of a Surface circulation. These came out 60 to 90 minutes ago.

Well thats contradicting other offices. I looking at the satilite will believe the other images. You can clearly see an LLC. Although shear is afecting it at the moment.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH...AND IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

[lilbump3000]

That was a while ago from 11:30 this morning, things may have changed since then.

[Brent]

OK... from 2:05:

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GLFMEX HAS BECOME RATHER ACTIVE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AS
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVED NWD LAST NIGHT
AND IS CURRENTLY MERGING WITH AN EXISTING UPPER LOW OVER THE W
GLFMEX. THIS INTERACTION HAS CREATED AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST SEWD INTO THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN HAS ALLOWED COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD INTO
THE SE GLFMEX WHERE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS/LIFT IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PROGRESS NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GLFMEX
TONIGHT POSSIBLY REACHING THE N GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY. WHILE
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PASS PRIMARILY W OF
FLORIDA...UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EWD OVER THE SUNSHINE STATE.

[senorpepr]

Well thats contradicting other offices. I looking at the satilite will believe the other images. You can clearly see an LLC. Although shear is afecting it at the moment.

I'm sorry to burst your bubble... but with the satellite training I have... no low-level circulation. Of course, I wanted to make sure, so I paid a little visit to one of the satellite agencies that issue Dvorak estimates on tropical system. They agree. There is no low-level circulation. What you are seeing is near 500 and 700mb.

[Wnghs2007]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH...AND IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

Yeah that was earlier when there was no LLC


NOW THERE IS!!!!!!!!!

FXUS62 KEYW 121421
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
THE KEY WEST MORNING SOUNDING REVEALED DEEP-LAYER GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT RISES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...
A CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA HAS DEVELOPED DOWNWARD...AND NOW HAS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RECENT GOES-12
INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
WEST OF MERIDA...MEXICO...NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. ALSO...
DIFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE CELL COVERAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE MORNING SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLY
STRATIFIED AIR MASS OVER THE KEYS...WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. DESPITE THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...KEY WEST
DOPPLER RADAR IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...SHOWING ONLY AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN FALLING OUT OF THICK MID/UPPER CLOUD DECKS.

.AFTERNOON FORECASTS...
WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN QUITE LIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10KT MOST
PLACES. THEREFORE...FIRST PERIOD WINDS WILL BE LOWERED A FEW KNOTS.
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...DUE TO NORTHWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS FROM OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES. THERE MAY
BE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO
THICK MID/UPPER CLOUD DECKS.

&&
.MARINE...
WINDS MAY EVEN SLACKEN A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE GETS PINCHED BY A PENINSULAR HEAT TROUGH.

&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KEYW AND KMTH
TERMINALS...AS WELL AS THE KMIA-KEYW AIR ROUTE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN DEVELOPING SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...AND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR THE KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS...K. KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....L. KASPER

[Brent]

Well thats contradicting other offices. I looking at the satilite will believe the other images. You can clearly see an LLC. Although shear is afecting it at the moment.

I'm sorry to burst your bubble... but with the satellite training I have... no low-level circulation. Of course, I wanted to make sure, so I paid a little visit to one of the satellite agencies that issue Dvorak estimates on tropical system. They agree. There is no low-level circulation. What you are seeing is near 500 and 700mb.

Thank you.

[Wnghs2007]

I'm sorry to burst your bubble... but with the satellite training I have... no low-level circulation. Of course, I wanted to make sure, so I paid a little visit to one of the satellite agencies that issue Dvorak estimates on tropical system. They agree. There is no low-level circulation. What you are seeing is near 500 and 700mb.

There is a surface circulation look at what I posted above for conformation. Thanks

[lilbump3000]

There most likely is a surface circulation, but it's probably a very weak one, so they are saying that there isnt one since its probably so weak.

[senorpepr]

There is a surface circulation look at what I posted above for conformation. Thanks

It's a broad surface low.

93L has a mid-level circulation, near 500-700mb. This circulation has yet to reach the surface, although a broad surface low is encompassing the region. Surface obs near the invest show continued easterly to southeasterly flow. The lack of a low-level circulation is hindering the process of doing a Dvorak estimate. This system will continued to be monitored."

[Wnghs2007]

[PTPatrick]

Folks...I gotta ask...DOES IT MATTER if a LLCC is there or not. I mean really, the thing may get going into a something, but it has a ways to go before it would be anything. I agree there looks to be some swirl...but if it is so weak and miniscule to spark debate about whether or not it is even there, is it even worth talking about? "Give it time young grasshopper."...if this is to grow it will do so soon enough, and then there will be plenty to talk about.