Dr. Lyons - Recon Plane Going In!

[Thunder44]

He just said it, during his tropical update on TWC. They going to investigate that possible center and thunderstorms that I mentioned earlier.

[Anonymous]

I doubt they'll find anything at all...but hey I guess it's worth a shot.

[Matthew5]

I think a new LLCC is forming with in that growing area of covnection. The tropical cyclone formation alert backs that up!

[Aquawind]

I welcome some facts..lotsa guessing..not much factual data to back it up yet...

[Matthew5]

Here it is from the horses mouth Aquawind

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.4N9 92.6W7 TO 25.1N8 93.8W0
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 130900Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5N0 92.5W6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 140900Z4.
//


Take a look there doe's appear to be a spin where the Pro's say it is-> http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 13, 2004



for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

a broad surface low pressure system located over the western Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of cloudiness and scattered
thunderstorms across much of the Gulf of Mexico. This weather
system is poorly organized at this time...but conditions may become
a little more favorable for a tropical depression to form during
the next day or so as the system moves slowly northward. However...
even if a tropical cyclone does not develop...bands of locally
heavy rainfall will likely affect portions Louisiana and the Upper
Texas coast over the next couple of days. An Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the weather
system later today.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.
Forecaster Stewart

[lilbump3000]

I also have a question, ok people on here are talking about a shortwave trough coming which means conditions will be unfavorable for development, but in the tropical weather outlook, how come it says conditions may become a little more favorable for development?

Any Answers?

[Stormcenter]

Now they are mentioning the "possible" development of
a TD.

[Anonymous]

I also have a question, ok people on here are talking about a shortwave trough coming which means conditions will be unfavorable for development, but in the tropical weather outlook, how come it says conditions may become a little more favorable for development?

Any Answers?

Conditions will become a tad more conducive today as shear slightly weakens and the position of the shortwave is actually able to enhance upper level ridging in the vicinity. However, all model guidance suggests shear will pick up in the region starting tomorrow as the shortwave moves closer and the centerpoint of the ridging is pushed further east. It's at that time if the system hasn't developed, it never will...any intensification beyond that point will be in a hybrid or non-tropical manner.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Conditions are a bit more condusive for some development today. We may see some tropical development during the day today if the mid level disturbance underneath that convection transfers down to the surface. A surface low of 1010 mb is very weak west of all of this. The main area of concern is over this convective blob, which is rotating. But is it mid level or has it transferred down to the surface?? The recon will definitely find that out soon and so will we. This may also have some subtropical or hybrid characteristics in it's life too.

As for this shortwave, the real effects will be felt tomorrow as this system tracks more towards the north or northeast at a faster rate of speed. This means TX-MS need to watch out for blinding rains with a half foot or more possible late Monday into Tuesday. The best chance of development tropically appears to be today into tonight. By later tomorrow, the shortwave will definitely affect this system and plus it's running out of room anyway with respect to warmer water. Thus time is ticking here.

Jim