Some more thoughts ...

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

Some more thoughts ...

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Jun 13, 2004 2:21 pm

Some MORE things going against 93L ...

1) Convection that continues to refire on the Yucatan Peninsula is robbing moisture from the wrapping around into the LLC ...
2) Dry air still being entrained around from the South and SE sides.
3) Particularly for lilbump3000 ... note on WV imagery that dry line demarkation on satellite imagery pusing south across Mexico and east towards the GOM in Southern TX is the trough being talked about ...

A lot of opinions have been hashed about 93L and a lot feel that this will be classified as a TD or even weak TS ...

IMHO, IF the system is upgraded to a TD, it would be a very "GRACE-"ious upgrade since the system to me looks more like a complex extratropical system ...

SF
0 likes   

User avatar
Dan
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2003 11:04 am
Location: Marion North Carolina
Contact:

Re: Some more thoughts ...

#2 Postby Dan » Sun Jun 13, 2004 2:41 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Some MORE things going against 93L ...

1) Convection that continues to refire on the Yucatan Peninsula is robbing moisture from the wrapping around into the LLC ...
2) Dry air still being entrained around from the South and SE sides.
3) Particularly for lilbump3000 ... note on WV imagery that dry line demarkation on satellite imagery pusing south across Mexico and east towards the GOM in Southern TX is the trough being talked about ...

A lot of opinions have been hashed about 93L and a lot feel that this will be classified as a TD or even weak TS ...

IMHO, IF the system is upgraded to a TD, it would be a very "GRACE-"ious upgrade since the system to me looks more like a complex extratropical system ...

SF


IMO, the satellite picture looks interesting but it is hard to tell whether we have a Depressioon out there.

Personally, I think we have an LLC out there but just not strong enough to be classified as a Depression. As stated by SF, the inflow is not strong enough because if it was then the Yucatan convection would not be as persistant.

IMO, tonight will be very key in whether we have a classifed tropical system or not. When the convection to the east of the supposed LLC decreases tonight, then that may give chance for the inflow into the supposed LLC to get stronger and therefore a chance for some development. If this system truly is a tropical low, then we should expect the wide area of convection to consolidate around the supposed LLC.

Those are my thoughts as of this time...
0 likes   

ColdFront77

#3 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Jun 13, 2004 2:43 pm

For whatever it's worth, I see some slow consolidation taking place.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Lizzytiz1 and 130 guests