Models change future path

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

Models change future path

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 13, 2004 5:13 pm

Since yesterday almost all the models have been trying to move the system toward Texas coast, but at this moment the models believe the Louisiana/Mississippi's coasts are in danger. The system looks to be moving slowly northward so they may be right. :lol:

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

#2 Postby Aquawind » Sun Jun 13, 2004 5:27 pm

If they are using some RECON data for the models and the current center continues to develop... The models could shift and should tighten up even more.. 8-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23080
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#3 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 13, 2004 5:32 pm

Aquawind wrote:If they are using some RECON data for the models and the current center continues to develop... The models could shift and should tighten up even more.. 8-)


The only recon data they'll be using is the estimate of the center of lowest pressure. Earlier today, all the tropical models were initializing with the center just off the coast of Mexico where yesterday's eddy dissipated. The model spread looks like a good estimate of where the CENTER of any low might go (upper TX coast to FL Panhandle). But heavy squalls may move ashore 200-500 miles east of this center, so don't just focus on a track, look at the effects.
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#4 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jun 13, 2004 5:35 pm

The track of the current center doesn't mean much. The alignment of thunderstorms to the east is a good indication of which areas are most at risk for heavy rainfall. I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the tropical models this time around anyway. The global models have been fairly consistent with a track to the NNE.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

#5 Postby Aquawind » Sun Jun 13, 2004 5:40 pm

Thanks 57.. I thought they only input the high altitude flights for model data but wasn't sure if they used any dropsonde data as well. Of course data for a initialization point is used.

But heavy squalls may move ashore 200-500 miles east of this center, so don't just focus on a track, look at the effects.


I hear ya.. 8-)
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:36 pm

I happen to be here in the Austin, TX region visiting relatives and the local forecasters are saying the models indicate heavy rain for Central Texas over the next 2-3 days.

Is this a real possibility? Austin is already pretty waterlogged from rain last week.


-Jeb
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 70 guests