Tropical Wave in Atlantic Weakens

[FWBHurricane]

It looks like this storm is going to be short lived. The shear is eating it away and the convection is slowly weakening. If it survives through tonight then it might still have a chance. Plus look in the North Atlantic, it looks like a trough is moving its way. Hopefully it will move out of the way before the trough reaches it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[MWatkins]

I wouldn't write it off just yet...we will see if some stronger convection returns overnight. The overall cloud pattern is actually well-organized for this time of year.

QSCAT from this morning got a pretty good look at the circulation which appears 2/3rds complete:

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/storm_at_ima ... _at_1.html

SSM/I from earlier today just missed it but another pass is coming up.

Water temps are just barely warm enough to support development...but they are warm enough.

I would wait a little bit before writing this system off...downward pulsing in the afternoon hours is typical for tropical systems over water.

IMHO...this system has a better shot than it's cousin in the Gulf...that thing is like a mess right now.

MW

[Anonymous]

Whether it develops or not, considerring that its June, could be a sign of a busy cape verde season by Aug/Sept... Looks awefully close to the equator though( below 10N) and may crash into south america... But models take it wnw so we shall see

[FWBHurricane]

Im still going to watch this system, of course. Im looking at a map of windshear and the shear north of the system will persist but since the system is moving west into the Caribbean, it will clear the shar in a few days. There is some light shear in the Caribbean but nothing that would completely destroy a system. It still has a good chance of development but we will have to watch and see over the next few days.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[Thunder44]

Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC just said it's been sheared off and has no chance of development.

[Wnghs2007]

Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC just said it's been sheared off and has no chance of development.

And who was saying a last night that the thing in the Gulf would develop

[Steve H.]

The low east of the Lesser Antilles has an improved structure during the last 12 hours, and last visible pix show convection blooming in a circular pattern. WIth high building west, shear should diminish. The trough to the North of this system will evacuate as the ridge builds westward. I'm not guarantying development but IMO it looks better now than it did this morning. Cheers!!

[MWatkins]

Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC just said it's been sheared off and has no chance of development.

The only thing sheared off is the hair Steve used to have on his head.

If he did say that (and I'm not doubting your report)...he probably phoned that part in. Some shear has been there for a while but is not the reason thunderstorm activity has decreased (I don't think...I think it's diurnal pulsing). 18Z analysis from CIMMS depicts 10/15 knots of shear in the area. Anything over 15knts is prohibitive...but 10/15 is not.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Also...over the last 12 hours shear is decreasing some in the area:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

I suppose we'll find out if thunderstorm activity does not increase tonight/overnight.

I'm not arguing for significant development BTW. We've seen a couple of June systems get to TD status in recent years that have looked more impressive than this wave...only to fade away after a handfull of advisories.

MW

[Thunder44]

Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC just said it's been sheared off and has no chance of development.

The only thing sheared off is the hair Steve used to have on his head.

If he did say that (and I'm not doubting your report)...he probably phoned that part in. Some shear has been there for a while but is not the reason thunderstorm activity has decreased (I don't think...I think it's diurnal pulsing). 18Z analysis from CIMMS depicts 10/15 knots of shear in the area. Anything over 15knts is prohibitive...but 10/15 is not.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Also...over the last 12 hours shear is decreasing some in the area:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

I suppose we'll find out if thunderstorm activity does not increase tonight/overnight.

I'm not arguing for significant development BTW. We've seen a couple of June systems get to TD status in recent years that have looked more impressive than this wave...only to fade away after a handfull of advisories.

MW

I hope you're right MWatkins

[HURAKAN]

http://152.80.49.216/archdat/tc04/ATL/9 ... 2215.goes-

At this moment this wave is gone, let see what happens in the middle of the Caribbean and forward.

[Anonymous]

It's going to have a hard time making it into the eastern Caribbean. Shear and subsidence lie ahead.

[Guest]

The subsidence in teh caribbean is a building High pressure that is shown in teh 200MB models to lift northward and bring Florida some drier weather later in teh week. This wave is in a good location, and the shear is it's only obsticle.

[HURAKAN]

The subsidence in teh caribbean is a building High pressure that is shown in teh 200MB models to lift northward and bring Florida some drier weather later in teh week. This wave is in a good location, and the shear is it's only obsticle.

As always.

[*StOrmsPr*]

TWD about Atlantic TW

Tropical wave along 51w/52w S of 18n moving W 15 kt. System is
impressive on satellite pictures with a mid-level circulation
located near 10.5n50w and plenty of convection. A line of
cumulus along 20n50w to 10n56w is probably the leading edge of
deeper moisture according to GFS moisture fields. This wave
should return the Caribbean islands to a wetter pattern... with
rain reaching the Windward Islands late Tue spreading across the
leewards Wed into the Puerto Rico vicinity by early Thu.
Widely scattered moderate is forming near the mid-level center
between 9n-12n between 48w-52w with isolated moderate S of 10n
within 90 nm of axis.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?

[cycloneye]

TWD about Atlantic TW

Tropical wave along 51w/52w S of 18n moving W 15 kt. System is
impressive on satellite pictures with a mid-level circulation
located near 10.5n50w and plenty of convection. A line of
cumulus along 20n50w to 10n56w is probably the leading edge of
deeper moisture according to GFS moisture fields. This wave
should return the Caribbean islands to a wetter pattern... with
rain reaching the Windward Islands late Tue spreading across the
leewards Wed into the Puerto Rico vicinity by early Thu.
Widely scattered moderate is forming near the mid-level center
between 9n-12n between 48w-52w with isolated moderate S of 10n
within 90 nm of axis.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?

Interesante verdad ?Storms Interesting right Storms For being June it is organized well enough to have invest up at NRL.For sure we will have rain here in the next couple of days.

[*StOrmsPr*]

TWD about Atlantic TW

Tropical wave along 51w/52w S of 18n moving W 15 kt. System is
impressive on satellite pictures with a mid-level circulation
located near 10.5n50w and plenty of convection. A line of
cumulus along 20n50w to 10n56w is probably the leading edge of
deeper moisture according to GFS moisture fields. This wave
should return the Caribbean islands to a wetter pattern... with
rain reaching the Windward Islands late Tue spreading across the
leewards Wed into the Puerto Rico vicinity by early Thu.
Widely scattered moderate is forming near the mid-level center
between 9n-12n between 48w-52w with isolated moderate S of 10n
within 90 nm of axis.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?

Interesante verdad ?Storms Interesting right Storms For being June it is organized well enough to have invest up at NRL.For sure we will have rain here in the next couple of days.

si muy interesante. hope not that much rain though!!

[The_Cycloman_PR]

TWD about Atlantic TW

Tropical wave along 51w/52w S of 18n moving W 15 kt. System is
impressive on satellite pictures with a mid-level circulation
located near 10.5n50w and plenty of convection. A line of
cumulus along 20n50w to 10n56w is probably the leading edge of
deeper moisture according to GFS moisture fields. This wave
should return the Caribbean islands to a wetter pattern... with
rain reaching the Windward Islands late Tue spreading across the
leewards Wed into the Puerto Rico vicinity by early Thu.
Widely scattered moderate is forming near the mid-level center
between 9n-12n between 48w-52w with isolated moderate S of 10n
within 90 nm of axis.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?

Interesante verdad ?Storms Interesting right Storms For being June it is organized well enough to have invest up at NRL.For sure we will have rain here in the next couple of days.

si muy interesante. hope not that much rain though!!

Se les escapo un poquito de espanol por ahi??? hmm! Some spanish escaping somewhere!!! BTW Wave convection has persisted so far, while the trough convection is fading and the shear ahead of it is also fading away as the last pics shows...preety nice wave for this time of the year.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

Cycloman.

[HURAKAN]

FROM ACCUWEATHER:
At this point the answer is no. The tropical wave moving toward the Lesser Antilles is well defined. However, there is a belt of strong southwesterly winds aloft (shear zone) that will weaken this system as it moves into the Caribbean. However, it will have to be monitored the rest of this week.

Maybe nothing will happen but surely everyone is interested in this tropical wave.

[FWBHurricane]

That shear is suppost to weaken slightly in the next 36 hours, some small shear will dominate most of that region but i dont think most of it will be enough to destroy the system.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[Ola]

I really dont understand why some prof TV mets like to gg against what the NHC says. For the last 2 days I have read discussions from the NHC and the San Juan National Weather Service office say that the shear will retrograde before the wave catches up with it. Still Steve Lyons and accuweather keep saying that the shear will eat it up. I really dont know if either one will happen but I dont understand why if they all look at the same models they dont come up with the same forecasts. Anyone knows why?

This is the latest San Juan office weather discussion :


000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150319
AFDSJU

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 PM AST MON JUN 14 2004

.UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT
ACROSS 55W TONIGHT WITH THE WAVE AXIS LAGGING BEHIND AROUND 52W.
LAST VISIBLE SHOTS THIS EVENING SHOWED A CLEAR LINE OF
DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE SUBSIDENT AND STABLE AIR MASS COVERING THE
REGION FROM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO AND THE
MOIST...MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO ITS EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE USVI BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND
REACH EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY WEDS MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE...A
MARKED TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND BREEZIER REGIME IS ANTICIPATED.
THE FORECAST PACKAGE TONIGHT REFLECTS THIS ABRUPT CHANGE TO THE
WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND MID WEEK.


ONE FOOTNOTE: MODELS SHOW TUTT AXIS...CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...RETROGRADING BY MIDWEEK TO A POSITION WEST OF 70W. SUCH A
POSITION WOULD FAVOR A BROAD REGION OF RISING MOTION NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF ITS AXIS CORRESPONDING TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
HISTORICALLY...THIS IS A WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME...GIVEN THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINITIES OF FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINS SEVERAL DAYS
IN ADVANCE...WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE
COMING DAYS.


KIMBERLAIN