Final Disc on GOM and Update on CATL Wave

[Anonymous]

IWIC Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Discussion - 14 June 2004 - 8:00 PM EDT

The slight potential for tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico has finally come to an end. The long-awaited shortwave trough is acting to clear things out by forcing all of the thunderstorms inland. National water vapor imagery shows a fairly strong mid to upper level low pushing south towards the Texas coast. While most of the moisture associated with the tropical disturbance will pass well to the east of Texas, the area will be under the gun for isolated severe storms and some flooding along the eastern edge of the upper low. Rain chances will remain fairly high in eastern Texas through Wednesday-Thursday. The upper low will slowly be retreating northeast by the end of the period.

Current radar imagery shows that the surge of moisture coming out of the Gulf is enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity as far north as Tennessee and as far east as central Florida. The main flooding threat will exist in SE LA, S MS/AL and the Florida panhandle. Not all areas within the flood watches will experience flooding, and some of those watches areas will likely be trimmed. But portions of the central Gulf Coast will likely have 3"-6" rainfall totals over the next 36 hours. The moisture associated with the broad low level circulation will eventually push northeast and begin to dissipate. However, daily rain chances over northern Georgia and the Carolinas will likely be a bit higher than normal due to the moisture surge.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, the weather is still rather quiet. One area of interest, is a tropical wave located 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Convection has flared over the low level center over the past six hours, but that is primarily in response to strong southwest winds causing divergence in the upper levels. As we look out ahead of our wave for inhibiting factors, water vapor imagery shows fairly well developed Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough cells in the eastern Caribbean and central Atlantic Ocean. These upper level features are generating sinking air and strong upper level winds. As the wave makes an attempt to pass through the Lesser Antilles, it will have to contend with these inhibiting factors. All of the models are in agreement with slow weakening as the wave moves west-northwest towards Hispaniola. No development is expected in the short term. However, as mentioned a couple weeks ago, any wave that does make it all the way across during this time of the year would have to be watched.

http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html

[abajan]

The anticipation of this wave is almost too much to bear. For as long as I can remember, thunderstorms were always fascinating to me.

I can't wait.

(I just hope it doesn't turn out to be a total flop)

[Anonymous]

The anticipation of this wave is almost too much to bear. For as long as I can remember, thunderstorms were always fascinating to me.

I can't wait.

(I just hope it doesn't turn out to be a total flop)

Well don't get your hopes up this early in the process. There are no signs of development in the long range either...but we have to keep a watch on it.

[cycloneye]

From here in PR we are watching it even if no development happens because of the rains that it may bring and here we have many flood events so for that reason primary I am watching closely.But yes Jason when things begin to heat up by early august then really the residents in the islands have to be prepared for any threat comming from the east.

[Anonymous]

From here in PR we are watching it even if no development happens because of the rains that it may bring and here we have many flood events so for that reson primary I am watching closely.But yes Jason when things begin to heat up by early august then really the residents in the islands have to be prepared for any threat comming from the east.

Yes, this will definitely be a rainmaker for the islands. Shear will keep things in check as it passes through the area, certainly good for you guys. Stay safe and prepared cyc!