12:00 UTC model plots for strong wave 94L

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cycloneye
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12:00 UTC model plots for strong wave 94L

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 15, 2004 9:29 am

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04061513

Those tracks would send the center of the wave thru Puerto Rico but of course many things can happen from now to 72 hours but the main thing is that it will be an open wave when it enters the eastern caribbean sea with plenty of rain and gusty winds but with the shear present it will keep the wave in check.By the way this model run came out more late in the morning than what they normally come out.
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Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jun 15, 2004 9:50 am

Chances of development? ZERO

Not with the Carib trough
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Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jun 15, 2004 10:26 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Chances of development? ZERO

Not with the Carib trough


Agreed.

Model graphic.....

Image
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PTrackerLA
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#4 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jun 15, 2004 10:45 am

Yep not really intrigued by this wave b/c it will not develop. The gulf low had more of a chance.
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Tue Jun 15, 2004 11:16 am

To say chances of development are zero is a pretty bold statement, as conditions can change over a couple of days. This is an impressive wave and though development may not occur for a couple of days, I think we may see our first TD from it down the road. The trough axis draped across the Caribbean should die off as the low at 40N lifts out. I give this thing a 40% shot 8-)
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#6 Postby Scott_inVA » Tue Jun 15, 2004 11:32 am

WREL Model Map up with available Global runs included. Link below

(BTW, this is NOT gonna happen).

Scott
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#7 Postby msbee » Tue Jun 15, 2004 1:21 pm

the models show it to pass South of St. Maarten.
I hope we could get a little rain from it and maybe some wind too
it is hot, hazy, dry , and breezeless here!
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:42 pm

msbee wrote:the models show it to pass South of St. Maarten.
I hope we could get a little rain from it and maybe some wind too
it is hot, hazy, dry , and breezeless here!


Here in Puerto Rico too it has been very hazy and dry but that will go away in less than 24 hours as the wave draws closer to our longitud.
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