Corpus Christi AFD.....weak N GOM low next week??

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KatDaddy
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Corpus Christi AFD.....weak N GOM low next week??

#1 Postby KatDaddy » Thu Jul 01, 2004 7:11 pm

Perhaps something to watch next week in the GOM. We shall see as the MJO propagates W toward the Atlantic Basin.


GFS/ETA/ECMWF SHOW A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH PINCHING OFF
INTO A WEAK LOW OVER THE NRN GOMEX BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND OLD MEXICO. THIS WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES MAY
RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO INFLUENCE ERN ZONES BY WED/THU...BUT
LATEST GFS INDICATES WE MAY REMAIN ON THE WRN (SUBSIDENT SIDE) OF
THE LOW AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT
WAVE MOVING WEST ACROSS NRN TX/OK
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#2 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 01, 2004 7:16 pm

Interesting :eek: but it is the GFS :wink:
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#3 Postby MWatkins » Thu Jul 01, 2004 7:43 pm

I just looked at the models...they seem to be picking up on a upper/mid low closing off...perhaps...in 144-168 hours. Surface pressures will fall some as a weak surface trough digs out...but that's all I can see from it.

In 144 hours....

Surface pressures:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... hour=144hr

Weak anticyclonic flow over the Gulf...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... hour=144hr

Cyclonic vorticity showing up in the mid-levels:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... hour=144hr

Well-defined upper low over SE Texas...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... hour=144hr

I still think we're going to very late July or Aug before we see anything develop.

MW
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