June update of ENSO models=Once again NEUTRAL

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cycloneye
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June update of ENSO models=Once again NEUTRAL

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 01, 2004 9:16 pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

No change from the models from the may update to the june one as they for the most part are with neutral ENSO now thru november.
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#2 Postby elw » Thu Jul 01, 2004 11:06 pm

Looks good to me Luis, thanks for sharing. My Florida Dry season analogs had a mean ENSO 3.4 region SSTA value of +0.43 For the November-April period.

By the way, a notice for everyone (especially those of you in Florida) My 2004-05 Florida Dry season outlook will appear in the July newsletter.

Image

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... table.html
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Re: June update of ENSO models=Once again NEUTRAL

#3 Postby MWatkins » Fri Jul 02, 2004 12:01 am

cycloneye wrote:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

No change from the models from the may update to the june one as they for the most part are with neutral ENSO now thru november.


Yep. We're now past the time of year (Apr/May/Jun) where predicting a Nino is trickiest. There is little to no doubt that a warm ENSO event will not set in before the end of the season at least.

So...overall that's bad news. So...now we must sit and wait for the first problem to pop up. Good post, Luis. But...bad news.

MW
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