NE Fla lack of canes... Due to climate change or luck??

[Anonymous]

NE Florida has experienced hurricane force winds from East coast hurricanes 24 times between 1565 and 1900-Only once in the 1900s... Anyones guess as to whether this is due to a climate change or 100 years of reasonably good luck?? Here are the years of cane conditions from that period... East coast events only--not counting back doors and tropical storm conditions... (there were a LOT more of those)

1565, 1571, 1599, 1638, 1674, 1707, 1769, 1794, 1797, 1804, 1806, 1811, 1812, 1813, 1824, 1825, 1837, 1844, 1854, 1871, 1878, 1893, 1894?,1898

Data taken from http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/history/index.html

[Dean4Storms]

Good question and I don't know that anyone has ever studied the change or at least I'm not aware of it. I would think that during this period the Bermuda High was either non-existant or much further westard like a Cape Hatteras High for this frequency of near hurricane passes along NE FL. to have taken place. I can't see it being luck, that is way too much luck over that span of time.

[Hurricanehink]

I'm guessing climate change, like maybe the Bermuda High either kept storms more westward, or northwestward, away from Jacksonville area. If all of those storms happened for the previous 500 years, and in this 100 year period, there has been one, I don't think it is luck. I think that there is always a chance for a NE Florida landfall, as there is for a NJ landfall, but there's no such thing as luck. Mother nature, despite what we think, doesn't try to keep things in balance. She is not human, and she isn't trying to keep a certain area hurricane free. Just my two cents...