Evening Discussion

[Anonymous]

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IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 5 July 2004 - 8:30 PM EDT

A well-defined tropical wave exited the coast of Africa earlier this morning. Scatterometer wind data does show a low level circulation, with the strongest winds embedded within thunderstorms along the equatorward outflow boundary. The eastern Atlantic is not a climatologically favoured area for development this early in the season. Therefore, significant development is not expected within the immediate future. But the wave will have to be monitored as it travels westward over the next several days. A 1006MB low is expected to develop along the wave once near 50ºW. This is the strongest wave to come off of the African coast this season, and it also has slightly more potential based on model data. Now once the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles, it will likely encounter stronger upper level winds. An upper ridge is currently in place over the wave. But an upper level trough over the western Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea will likely inhibit development once the wave is that far west. The best potential potential for development will more than likely be late this weekend or early next week, as progged by the GFS. But the wave must show persistence before any call for development can be made. At this point, the chances for development are still fairly low.

Now that the Madden Julian Oscillation has made its way all the way to the African coast, now is the time to watch for development. As forecast on June 25, we expected to see somewhat of a surge in activity in the Mean Development Region, and we are now beginning to see signs of that happening. While no immediate development is expected, we do have several waves coming off of the African coast that we should keep an eye on.

The remaining low level features in the Atlantic basin are showing no signs of development.

[MGC]

Hey Tropical, What makes you so certain a 1006mb low will form near 50W? Are you baseing that satement on a particular model run or just conjecture? I concur with most of your analysis though.....MGC

[Anonymous]

Hey Tropical, What makes you so certain a 1006mb low will form near 50W? Are you baseing that satement on a particular model run or just conjecture? I concur with most of your analysis though.....MGC

There already is a surface low associated with the wave. There was a mistake in the sentence by not mentioning the GFS run, which does indicate that the surface low will steadily strengthen over the next several days. But if the convection associated with the wave were to persist over the next 24 hours, then we could see development a lot sooner than the progged model forecast. Persistence will be the key...conditions are moderately favorable.

[Anonymous]

There is a fair chance that the wave will reach the VIs. The timing of the interaction between the wave and the upper trough over the western Atlantic will be criticial. If the wave were to develop, we could see a similar track to that of Alex...only a bit farther south this time around.

[MGC]

OK, I think conditions will be enviromentally more favorable in a couple of days say when the system makes the central Atlantic. I had read that there was a MLC. Is a surface low supported by observation of some type say ships?....MGC

[Anonymous]

OK, I think conditions will be enviromentally more favorable in a couple of days say when the system makes the central Atlantic. I had read that there was a MLC. Is a surface low supported by observation of some type say ships?....MGC

Recent Scatterometer winds show a poorly defined surface center.

[rainstorm]

better watch south of bermuda, closer to home and getting organized