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IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 6 July 2004 - 8:00 PM EDT
The main areaa of interest in the Atlantic Basin continues to be two tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic, and a new formed tropical disturbance near Bermuda.. The first wave now approaching 30ºW has become somewhat less organized over the past 24 hours. The wave hasn't fully seperated itself from the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The strong subtropical ridge and Saharan Air Layer to the north of the wave is inhibiting convective development in the northern quadrants. There is upper level ridging in the eastern Atlantic, albeit weak. The global models are in agreement with a westerly track towards the Virgin Islands, with the low pressure area approaching the islands on Sunday. The models do appear to be on track, as there are no signs of the low level steering pattern changing anytime soon. The subtropical ridge should continue to enhance the mean low level steering flow, which is causing the waves to move west at 20MPH. The wave was the strongest one to exit the coast so far this season. However, climatology does not suggest that the potential for development is that high. In addition, upper level winds are not as favorable near the Lesser Antilles. While the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough will lift north some over the next five days, some light to moderate shear will still be present. The wave will be continue to be monitored closely but no development is expected at this time.
The second wave has also lost some convection since it exited the African coast. Wave #2 should behave much like wave #1, at least while still in the Mean Development Region. Both waves should continue on a westerly heading, with the second wave likely approaching the Lesser Antilles on the 15th or 16th. The second wave does have a slightly greater chance of development, as the moisture levels ahead of it's path are slightly greater. This wave will continue to be monitored, but significant development is not expected in the immediate future.
Last but not least is a tropical disturbance that has formed south of Bermuda. The disturbance has formed along a surface trough. The current satellite signature is fairly impressive. Upper level ridging is present over the western Atlantic. The disturbance does have some potential for development over the next 24 hours. But the window of oppurtunity will not last for long. An upper level disturbance will absorb the surface trough within the next 48 hours. Even if development were to occur, there is no threat of a direct hit on the East Coast. The low should begin to move northeast, away from Bermuda.
