TW at 20w 12n convective increase over water...........

#1 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 9:30 am

This TW is the first to actually have an increase in deep convection once it emerged over the Atlantic. This TW has more potential IMO of development than it's predecessor. Will have to watch to see if the convection persists, but it has done well for itself overnight.

#2 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 9:32 am

See Sat. loop from Meteosat 7..........

Go to link, scroll down to Meteosat 7 and click on IR Floater Box.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... pical.html

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 9:34 am

#4 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 9:36 am

Thanks for that Pic Rainband! :wink:

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 9:36 am

Looks nice. We shall see if it persists

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 9:37 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Thanks for that Pic Rainband!

Your welcome ,heres another one :wink:

#7 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 9:58 am

Interestingly, the AVN appears to close off a low near 50w 10n in a few days with what would have to be this TW. It would then move toward the SE Carib.

Next couple of weeks will be alot more interesting than the past few, that is for sure.

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:00 am

I agree. It will start to get interesting sooner than later :eek:

chadtm80 · #9 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:02 am

Nice ball of convection.. Wonder whats going on underneath it though.. Ill have a new loop available tonight for this one

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:05 am

Thanks Chad

#11 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:17 am

Yep, thanks Chad and here's hoping for another 4 yrs. of W in the White House!

Steve H. · #12 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:19 am

Huge wave in the western African jungles ready to come off in the next day!!

#13 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:23 am

Honestly, even though it definitely has a bigger ball of convection than it did yesterday, if you watch the loop you will see the cloud tops are warming significantly which could be the beginning of a downturn in the convection associated with this system.

I must agree however, that it has a better chance than its' predecessor at this point of developing into a TC. As always, WE WAIT, WE WATCH!

#14 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:28 am

The GFS still likes this system...looks to be some easterly shear over it right now...but convection has remained firarly consistent over the last several hours...looks like it may even be pulsing up a bit.

MW

#15 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:36 am

MWatkins wrote:The GFS still likes this system...looks to be some easterly shear over it right now...but convection has remained firarly consistent over the last several hours...looks like it may even be pulsing up a bit.

MW

You must have seen a later loop than I have or am I reading it wrong??

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:39 am

This loop is updated more regularly-I think-and shows the original convection warming and new convection firing a lil NE of the original
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... oat_0.html

#17 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:50 am

Ah, now I see what Mike sees!! Thanks!!!

#18 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:51 am

vbhoutex wrote:
MWatkins wrote:The GFS still likes this system...looks to be some easterly shear over it right now...but convection has remained firarly consistent over the last several hours...looks like it may even be pulsing up a bit.

MW

You must have seen a later loop than I have or am I reading it wrong??

I'm looking at this one

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... pical.html

Cloud tops to the southwest are warming...but there is a newer ball of deep convection...which is by the way more concentrated than anything we saw from the last system (it had a good swirl-shape but deep convection was removed from the apparent center)...going up to the NE of the previous one.

Also...notice that some blowoff spreading to the west from the system...this and the overall shape of the cloud pattern suggests some easterly shear (to me at least).

I bet what happened is that you started your post while the stuff to the west was pulsing down...but before the stuff to the east pulsed up.

MW

#19 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 10:55 am

Looks like we were writing at the same time..VB. Will be interesting to see what happens with this system.

MW

#20 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jul 07, 2004 11:03 am

This one is already holding my interest more than any of the others has so far.

TW at 20w 12n convective increase over water...........

TW at 20w 12n convective increase over water...........

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