S TX TW Saturday

[KatDaddy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1028 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

.UPDATE...
MCV OVR N TX MOVG SEWD THIS MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
REDEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVR EAST-CENTRAL TX THIS AFTN. 12Z
ETA RUN APPEARS TOO FAST DIMINISHING THE MCV SO WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POPS IN THE NE AND SLGT CHC FOR SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS IN THE SE.
OTHERWISE RAISED POPS FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVS SLOWLY ACRS SE/S TX...AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE FOR S TX...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SRN SECTIONS.

[vbhoutex]

Geez, you always bring such good news KD!!!

[KatDaddy]

From Corpus Disc

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
125 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

MODELS
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND SIGNALING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD/HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CWA/MWA WILL BE ENVELOPED IN THE ASCENSION REGION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SUPPLYING TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THE 250HPA CLOSED CYCLONE AND IT/S ASSOCIATED JETLET WILL BE
FAVORABLY POSITIONED TO PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL SPUR WAVES
OF CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING POSSIBLE FROM THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT.

[Johnny]

Well that doesn't sound good at all. The South, Middle and Upper Texas coast has seen its fair share of rain already this year.

[KatDaddy]

Here is an Update.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
230 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVR CENTRAL TX INVOF THIS MORNINGS N TX
MCV AND CURRENT LAPS CHARTS INDICATE THE NERN CWA COULD SUPPORT SCT
CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPR CIRCULATION CONTS
SEWD. WITH STG SFC HEATING THIS AFTN AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS THERE COULD BE STG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THESE STORMS.
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE ATMOSPHERE TRANSITIONS
FROM BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE NWLY FLOW ALOFT TOWARDS DEEP MOIST
SELY FLOW AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY MOVS INLAND
OVR TX THIS WEEKEND. WITH DEEPENING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT INCREASING POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AND HAVE UPPED POPS
TO THE GOOD CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY ACRS THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO CRP. WITH S TX SOILS STILL VERY MOIST FROM THE HEAVY JUNE
RAINS WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING WITH THIS SLOW MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM. FOR NOW THE
ECMWF AND GFSLR APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL SUN/MON WHEN THE
ECMWF PUSHES THE INVERTED TROF QUICKER TO THE WEST INTO NE MEXICO.

[Johnny]

FXUS64 KHGX 071937
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
236 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO FORM AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SE TX TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE 500 TO 250 MB HIGH CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NM INTO
MEXICO. POPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ITEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WHILE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER N TX AND MOVING TOWARD CLL.
TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARD
THE COAST. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PUT SE TX UNDER A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND LIKE THE ETA IN THIS CASE.

THE EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE GULF SHOULD APPROACH THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL MAY BE OVERDOING
THINGS A BIT ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BECAUSE OF THAT
AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN TIMING...WILL ONLY UP POPS A BIT BUT KEEP IN
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY.

[Rainband]

Hopefully the GFS is over doing it as It usually does. At any rate Good luck. You guys definitely don't need anymore rain!!