SE Shear!

[Thunder44]

So that's why the system SW of Berumda hasn't been been looking so good with convection. So why do they think this can develop? This is from the 8:05pm TWD:

A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 NM SSW OF
BERMUDA NEAR 31N66W...MOVING ENE NEAR 10 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS EMERGED FROM
BENEATH A CANOPY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SELY VERTICAL SHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER LOW TO ITS
W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE
CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 66W-68W. ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO S OF
THE CENTER FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 65W-67W. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
WEAK AT THE MOMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.

[HURAKAN]

Every minute that passes more questions come into play.

[kevin]

Holy crap 1018 mb? That's like a high almost...

[Anonymous]

18Z GFDL Run is in!!!!!!!!!!

..... And it immediately looses the system
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

[HURAKAN]

If you can see, the High Pressure near Tampico, México, is just 1017 mb, and our "Bermuda Disturbance" is 1018 mb. Interesting! The low pressure has a higher pressure than a comparable high pressure.