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[Rainband]

252
fxus62 ktbw 091740
afdtbw


West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
140 PM EDT Friday Jul 9 2004


Short term (tonight-sun)...surface ridge axis to meander across central
Florida with upper high retrograding west to over the deep south. Moisture
to slowly return to the area over the weekend...keeping low-end
scattered probability of precipitation for the County Warning Area on Sat and increasing to 40-50% probability of precipitation for
sun as convection fires along seabreeze and outflow boundaries. Kept
temperatures near to slightly above normal.


Long term (sun night-fri)...guidance continues to retrograde upper
level ridge west as troughing develops over eastern U.S. Through the
period. This will suppress surface ridge south of the area with a
southwesterly flow setting up by middle-week which will favor late night
and early morning convection along coastal zones...and afternoon and
evening activity over The Interior. Will continue with scattered
probability of precipitation through the period at this time. However...will need to keep an
eye on situation as things could come together for potential heavy
rainfall event across some portion of the region next week.


&&


Marine...ridging over the state will keep winds generally 10 knots
or less and seas at or below 2 feet. No highlights.


&&


Fire weather...no concerns as low level moisture to increase over
the next few days keeping rhs well above critical values.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 077 092 078 091 / 30 30 30 50
fmy 074 094 075 093 / 30 30 30 50
gif 075 095 075 093 / 20 30 20 50
srq 075 091 075 091 / 30 30 30 40
bkv 070 093 071 092 / 30 30 30 50


&&

[Trader Ron]

Next weeks forecast calls for a 20% chance of rain here in Naples. Of course,that can change.

[Rob H]

I read that this afternoon also, and have no idea what they
are thinking may occur.

[Rainband]

They need to elaborate darn it

[BayouVenteux]

Maybe they're picking up on a couple of, at the moment, unimpressive westward moving waves in the ATL, the first currently around 15N 50W. Obviously no chance for development at present...more likely the NWS is progging some convection enhancement due to a trough forecast to dig S into in the eastern US next week. At the very least, I hope you south Floridians can get some much-needed rain without any associated tropical hassles

[Aquawind]

OMG !! If that Met is referrencing to the former GFS runs...somebody should slap him..repeatedly..lol

[hial2]

John Morales from channel 51 is forecasting a "dip" in the jet stream @ mid next week which should bring lots and lots (mucha, mucha) rain into SoFla..

This might be the answer..