Rain for Virgin islands and Puerto Rico but anything more?

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

I included the long and short range radars to see if there is a circulation and second to see all the rain that will arrive to the area.

The upper trough nearby is causing divergent flow and causing the flareup of convection but nothing that shows signs of development at this point.For sure after the wave axis passes the lesser antilles the VI and PR will get plenty of rain on monday from it and some gusty winds too will be felt but if things change quickly meaning that the tutt trough moves away we will have to watch it more closely as it is in warm waters.Let's see what transpires in the next 24 hours with this interesting wave that has held pretty well despite the SAL and troughness around.

[caribepr]

We can use the rain!

[cycloneye]

Culebra is down in the rainfall amounts this year?

Well in general Puerto Rico has been above the departure from normal rates.For example in San Juan it has a surplus of +9.35 inches in the year and other stations around the island have more surpluses that San Juan as the rain event of may helped rise the rain totals.Let's see how much rain PR will recieve from this wave.

[caribepr]

Luis, we don't get half the rain you all get...we just get to watch it from here I wanted to put the stats in but the page seems to have disappeared...

[HUC]

The wave axis,apparently pass Guadeloupe around 7 am(pressure was 1013mb,and now is 1015mb,with a marqued v shape on the barogram).Weather is overcast,with rain and thunder.
But,at this moment,the wind is calm,what means that the amplitude of this wave is large(the SEst wins are not here at 10am).
This wave had to be watching after passing the Antillies chain(to my point of analysis!!)

[HurricaneLover]

Upper level winds are way too strong (40-50 mph)for any development(Steve Lyons from TWC). Just squalls of rain for Puerto Rico and the VI. Some localized flooding possible.

[Aquawind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 110938
AFDSJU

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST SUN JUL 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 59 OR 60 WEST AND CONTINUES
TO GENERATE A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION JUST AHEAD OF THE AXIS. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE AND
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WOULD APPROACH THE U.S.V.I. NEAR 00Z MONDAY. THE
NORTHEAST SEGMENT OF THE WAVE...TO THE EAST OF 60 WEST...IS
ENCOUNTERING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ON THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE TUTT. THIS MAY LIKELY SLOW DOWN THE WAVE PROPAGATION
TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW THE TUTT SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THIS
CONTINUES THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE WAVE WOULD ENCOUNTER LESS
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND ALLOW THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO APPROACH THE
REGION WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION. AT ANY RATE THE FORECAST IS FOR THE
CONVECTION TO REACH THE U.S.V.I. AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO STARTING NEAR 00Z AND THEN CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ANY KIND OF
SUBSTANTIAL WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY ON MONDAY. SO THE MAIN AFFECT ON THE
REGION FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BE MAINLY WEATHER RELATED.

AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE THERE IS NO LARGE SCALE CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 88 78 / 40 40 70 40
STT 86 74 86 76 / 40 60 60 30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.

&&

$$

DIEHL

[msbee]

cycloneye
do you think St Maarten will get any rain from this and when?

[HurricaneLover]

Driest part of the island this month so far looks to be the Northwest, near Arecibo and Aguadilla. And as usual the southwest part has been dry also. Culebra's rainfall estimates are closer to San Juan's.
Here is the link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis.php?location=PR&duration=month&product=obs&archive=XXX

[Weatherboy1]

HOWEVER...LATEST GFS GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW THE TUTT SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE WAVE WOULD ENCOUNTER LESS UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND ALLOW THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO APPROACH THE
REGION WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION.

If you look in WV imagery at where the ULL is that's causing all the problems, you can see that it appears to be inching ever so slightly to the E now. Plus, the wave is passing the longitude of that ULL. There is still shear in the area, don't get me wrong. But IF that ULL is starting to track E and the wave is continuing to move WNW, then it's going to be in a more favorable area for development over the next 24 hours. And my point is this: If it's managing to fire up all this convection when it's getting the you-know-what sheared out of it, what's it going to do when there's less shear? Not predicting a hurricane tomorrow or anything, but I think this wave definitely bears close watching. Longer-term, though, I doubt it will be a US threat, given that both the Melbourne AFD and Miami AFD talk about a significant trof setting up along the US east coast. It should be significant enough to deflect this thing away if it ever does turn into a storm.

[vbhoutex]

Yet at least one model takes this TW developing all the way into the GOM. I have not seen this yet, but a local OCM did mention it this am. We'll definitely be watching it.

[HUC]

http://www.weather.gov


Site Map News Organization Search
Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jul 11, 2004 - 11:00 AM EDTJul 11, 2004 - 10:00 AM CDTJul 11, 2004 - 09:00 AM MDTJul 11, 2004 - 08:00 AM PDTJul 11, 2004 - 07:00 AM ADTJul 11, 2004 - 06:00 AM HDT
2004.07.11 1500 UTC
Wind from the SW (230 degrees) at 2 MPH (2 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain with thunder
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TFFR 111500Z 23002KT 9999 -TSRA FEW015CB SCT040 BKN100 25/22 Q1016 TEMPO 8000 SHRA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 11 AM (15) Jul 11 77 (25) 71 (22) 30.00 (1016) SW 2 light rain with thunder
10 AM (14) Jul 11 77 (25) 71 (22) 30.03 (1017) Calm light rain with thunder
9 AM (13) Jul 11 77 (25) 71 (22) 30.00 (1016) NE 8 light rain with thunder
8 AM (12) Jul 11 78 (26) 73 (23) 30.00 (1016) E 8
7 AM (11) Jul 11 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) Calm
6 AM (10) Jul 11 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.94 (1014) SSW 3 light rain showers
5 AM (9) Jul 11 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) ESE 2
4 AM (8) Jul 11 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) SE 2 light rain with thunder
3 AM (7) Jul 11 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) SW 1 thunder
2 AM (6) Jul 11 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) NE 3
1 AM (5) Jul 11 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) N 3 thunder
Midnight (4) Jul 11 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.97 (1015) NNE 7
11 PM (3) Jul 10 80 (27) 71 (22) 30.00 (1016) NNE 6
10 PM (2) Jul 10 80 (27) 71 (22) 30.00 (1016) NE 6
9 PM (1) Jul 10 78 (26) 73 (23) 30.00 (1016) ENE 6
8 PM (0) Jul 10 80 (27) 69 (21) 29.97 (1015) NE 8
7 PM (23) Jul 10 82 (28) 69 (21) 29.97 (1015) NE 7
6 PM (22) Jul 10 82 (28) 69 (21) 29.94 (1014) NE 12
5 PM (21) Jul 10 84 (29) 69 (21) 29.94 (1014) NE 13
4 PM (20) Jul 10 86 (30) 69 (21) 29.94 (1014) NE 14
3 PM (19) Jul 10 86 (30) 68 (20) 29.94 (1014) NE 16
2 PM (18) Jul 10 87 (31) 68 (20) 29.94 (1014) NE 16
1 PM (17) Jul 10 87 (31) 68 (20) 29.97 (1015) ENE 14
Oldest Noon (16) Jul 10 87 (31) 68 (20) 29.97 (1015) ENE 14
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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Credits
You can see the pressure rise at the wave passage.
Think that wee had to whatch this one........

[KatDaddy]

Last Friday Joe B was concerned about this TW making into the Central GOM during the upcoming week and developing. This TW could become the start of our hurricane season.

[Weatherboy1]

I don't know what to make of it yet, but there are a couple of stations in the NE Leewards that are starting to report S, SSW and SW winds. Observations can be found below, where wind direction is the fourth number after the timestamp. Is this indicative of a surface low forming? Or are these customary winds for a passing Twave? Or could they just be random winds from a thunderstorm? I'm not sure, but any input from the experts out there would be much appreciated.

Check out these observations from TAPA:

6am 73 70 88 180 14 150 9 SCT 14 BKN 66 BKN 1 3/4 TRW
7am 75 73 94 070 10 140 9 SCT 11 SCT 214 BKN 7+ TRW
8am 79 75 88 110 20 150 8 SCT 9 BKN 28 BKN 3 1/2 TRW-
9am 77 75 94 150 20 160 8 SCT 11 BKN 29 BKN 7+ RW-
10a 75 72 88 180 18 150 9 SCT 12 SCT 30 BKN 7+ RW-
11a 77 73 88 200 10 140 11 SCT 14 SCT 30 BKN 7+ R-

And here are the observations from TFFR:
10am 77 72 83 000 0 170 12 SCT 16 SCT 7+ TRW-
11am 77 72 83 250 2 160 12 SCT 16 SCT 7+ TRW-
1100 77 72 83 230 2 160

[Weatherboy1]

Shear is still bad in the area, no doubt. But you can see in this CIMSS map that it is definitely declining. Not enough to allow significant development ... yet ... but if this wave gets about 3 -5 degrees further NW, it'll be in a much better environment for potential strengthening.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[HURAKAN]

You all are talking about rain, here in South Florida the only we can talk is about dryness and around 3 wildfires.

[MortisFL]

East coast of FL getting hammered with heavy rain right now. Hope it makes the track over to the west coast.

As for the wave...as long as it stays alive, the shear is going to decrease soon enough.

[chadtm80]

Yes Mortis, we are Getting SLAMMED over here on the east coast.. Started a thread about it in the us weather forum

[cycloneye]

cycloneye
do you think St Maarten will get any rain from this and when?

Depending on what the wave does in terms of movement and upper factors that island may get a lot of rain or less amounts.It is possible that the main convective area located now just east of the northern leewards may brush them but to close to call.But for sure some rain will fall in S T Maarten strarting early tonight.

[Thunder44]

Wait till this wave gets into the NW Carribean, than we can starting watching for development.