What the heck is going on.........

[dixiebreeze]

in the NE GOM??!!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[dixiebreeze]

Pressure falling here in east central GOM, but not a lot:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42022

[Anonymous]

JB Says it has to be watched http://playlist.yahoo.com/makeplaylist.dll?ID=860853 and that video was made early this morning before the flareup

[Stormcenter]

Do I see a spin?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[senorpepr]

hmmm...

[MortisFL]

I hope this convection over the gulf enhances our rain chances

It really rained over much of FL yesterday...with the exception of the west coast which didnt get nearly as much. Dixie, do you see the radar at around 10pm last night? Very intense rain near Sebring...then it dissipated quickly about an hour later.


Look at the current radar out in the gulf...LOTS of rain
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... ktbw.shtml

[BayouVenteux]

Do I see a spin?

perhaps, but things may not be what they seem...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1015 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG AND DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER OUR OUTER WATERS MOVING S. SURFACE DATA SHOW A TROUGH EXTENDING W-SW INTO THE GULF FROM NEAR THE SUWANNEE RIVER. CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AROUND 10-11Z IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER VORT MAX MOVING SW INTO THE AREA.

Ahh, ain't blobwatchin' grand!?

[Anonymous]

Is there a spin west-southwest of Fort Myers on Key west radar? Or am i looking to hard lol... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

[MortisFL]

I think I see what your seeing...

[vbhoutex]

JB is correct that this should be watched. It could develop into something. That being said a check of numerous bouys and cman stations nearby reveals nothing in the way of pressure drops or circulation.

Not about to write it off as I have seen similar become something(can we say cut-off low) and reach the surface, but I am not about to call it anything besides a BIG BLOB of convection at this point.

As far as that spin is concerned, what I see is collapsing and rebuikding tstorms. I don't see the spin.

[ameriwx2003]

Convection in the NE GOM... is the result of a mid/upper Vort Max that moved SW across Florida and moved into the Gulf:):)

[BayouVenteux]

Not about to write it off as I have seen similar become something(can we say cut-off low) and reach the surface, but I am not about to call it anything besides a BIG BLOB of convection at this point.

Very true vb...though infrequent occurences, over the years I do recall a "homegrown" Gulf system or two having formed from similar situations.

[Yankeegirl]

Well we will be having an area of high pressure building over Texas... So it wont be coming this way, if it does become anything more than a rain maker...

[Lindaloo]

Convection in the NE GOM... is the result of a mid/upper Vort Max that moved SW across Florida and moved into the Gulf:):)

HEY Mike! Good to see you!

I hope this develops as a rainmaker for Florida. They need it.

[ameriwx2003]

Hi Ya Lindaloo!!!!:):):).. Yes, hopefully before the week is out Florida will get some much needed rain..:):My bet for any tropical development in the next few weeks though would be from one of the waves coming off the African coast:):)

[KatDaddy]

This small system will move SW into the SW GOM at the same an ULL move into Mexico creating a shear zone across the GOM. The next TW will move into this area later in the week.

No keep in mind we havea trough developing across the E US. Normally troughs are players during the late part of Hurricane Season. Remember the "will it make it under the trough or will it recurve E" questions. It may be July but a similiar scenario will unfold. Joe B highlights the SW GOM as the place to watch down the road. It something does develop it may not move anywhere fast with ridging overhead.

We shall See

[Aquawind]

It looks like the Florida yesterday and just to the west.. it is moving away from florida at the moment but will provide some additional outflow boundries for the west coast of florida..but the big blob isn't going to park over anybody to soon..if it manages to miss the expected east coast trough it could get pretty interesting for anyone in the gulf..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... ktbw.shtml

[Anonymous]

I am surprised there was no mention of it in the 1130 TWO-They just mentioned the wave east of the Islands... Isnt this similar to how 1997 Danny and TS Allison developed except from the west instead of the east?

[KatDaddy]

a. Synoptic History
Like tropical cyclones Ana, Bill, and Claudette, Danny came from a weather system of non-tropical origin. On 13 July, a broad upper-tropospheric trough over the southeastern United States triggered a cluster of thunderstorms over the lower Mississippi River valley. This area of convection drifted southward over the north-central Gulf of Mexico coastal waters, and appears to have contributed to the formation of a small, weak surface low near the coast of Louisiana on the 14th.



Over the next couple of days, the cyclonic circulation expanded somewhat over the northern Gulf. However, surface winds remained quite weak and the associated deep convection was not persistent or well-organized. By 1200 UTC on 16 July, deep convection became a little better organized near the center and the system began to resemble a tropical cyclone

[PTrackerLA]

I remember the storms that formed Danny very well. I believe we had a tornado warning along with a severe squall line move move from N-S over the area. I had branches down all over my yard along with a couple inches of rain. And then, the next day, it started spinning out in the gulf. Anyway, at least we have something to watch now .

By the way, didn't Alicia form in a similar fashion as well?