mid level rotation?

[shortwave]

The convection in the NE gulf is looking like a mid level circulation. Any lower support involved?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[PTrackerLA]

Hmm, I actually might see what you're talking about. In the last 2 frames it looks like some clouds have formed a sort of swirl about due west of Tampa. Convection is not impressive though and there's definately nothing at the surface, we just need to keep an eye on it.

Edit: Use this link http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html , click animate, select about 20 frames, and click on the blob. It updates often and there is definately some sort of swirl that has developed in the mid-level or upper-level clouds.

[vbhoutex]

[PTrackerLA]

Very weak winds with that qsat. Convection needs to pick up significantly for this to be anything...it's also moving fairly fast as well.

[corpusbreeze]

I noticed too. I would place the swirl at around 28.5n 85w moving sw. .

[Stormchaser16]

Seems like a VERY quick mover indeed, but there IS a definite swirl in the mid to upper levels. Convection seems to be dying down in the last few frames of the loops, but this is also where we begin to note the swirl. If it doesn't totally lose all convection and maintains a circulation then it is possible it may develop into something before hitting land. The period for development would be short though since it is moving so fast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

Some sort of upper level circulation is evident there (albeit weak).

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Pretty minimal shear environment it has. And it should maintain that for sometime. It seems as though this has at least minimal potential to become something more.

[Dean4Storms]

Agree Stormchaser, all we can do is sit back and see if convection rebuilds as it won't do anything as is. This is the southern extent of a surface trough boundary which fired and began moving westward over FL. Peninsula yesterday. The convection from yesterday died off as the sun set and the old outflow boundary appears to be what set this off this AM. If convection refires this evening or overnite than one could surmise that something is afoot in the GOM.

[Stormchaser16]

Definately, if something persists into tommorow(overnite even) then it would be probable to say that something is at least trying to get organized. Which would not surprise me too much if this were to happen with the MJO signals. At this point though it is warming extremely rapidly, the only thing that concerns me with it is a fairy noticeable mid-upper level swirl.

[Thunder44]

5:30 TWO from the NHC still doesn't even mention it. I think right now it's just another area of storms that's going to go POOF!

[Dean4Storms]

NHC won't mention it until it shows some persistance, but I'll bet you they are keeping an eye to it.

[Dean4Storms]

Latest visible loop showing signs of new convection beginning to rebuild near the center of the overall mass.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormchaser16]

Latest IR still reveals extreme warming...... but the visible still looks decent

[Dean4Storms]

Pressure falling rather dramatically even for regular afternoon drops. I've gone from 30.02" since I got home an hour ago to 29.98" now and still falling rapidly as indicated by my Davis Vantage Pro. I'm in Destin, here in the Panhandle.

Check the pressure drops south of Pensacola, rather significant in the last hour........

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42039

[Dean4Storms]

Even a little more of a drop well south of Panama City...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42003

[Stormchaser16]

Interesting indeed, like I said, this seems to be like a little more then just some convection since we do have an evident circulation..... but with IR dying down rapidly now we gotta see what holds together of it

[kevin]

Any storms in the gulf when conditions are right is something to watch. Dean, the bouy dropped from 30.09 to 30.02 but is holding steady now. Convection is the thing to watch with this one, if it builds tonight, and doesn't poof, we'll have a player.

[Thunder44]

We'll have to see if the pressures continue to drop throughout the night to see if this is just usual drop that occurs at this time of day or if there is more pattern developing. I don't like that the convection has diminshed so much from earlier.

[Stormchaser16]

Well probably because the system is moving away from the dynamics it had associated with the trough/boundary, the question now is, can the system hold on its own? If it persists through the nite with at least moderate convection then it has a pretty decent shot, if not then it just wasn't able to become anything more then convection moving off a boundary. There are signs that can argue for both ways:

The good:
Minimal shear
Mid-Upper level circulation
Good overall environment

The bad:
Moving quickly
It's only convection coming off from a boundary
Pressures arent falling very rapidly

The ugly:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Derecho]

Probably about 1 in 500 to 1000 of the assorted random thunderstorm complexes that move into the GOM develop into tropical systems.

And it seems to occur perhaps once a decade at best.

I wouldn't hold my breath in anticipation.

[ColdFront77]

We mention it, because it can and does occur.