How is everybody feeling about the Season so far

[Guest]

Most forecast I've read went for a slightly above normal season so I'm wondering what everybody thinks now. Things have been dead as a door nail, and quite frankly I've lowered my expectations a bit. Without going into exact numbers now I think we will be a bit below normal in the least for this year.

[wxman57]

So far, it's just as I expected - slow start. I have no doubt there will be 12-14 storms this year, and FL/SE US is in for a major hurricane hit.

[Stormsfury]

Most forecast I've read went for a slightly above normal season so I'm wondering what everybody thinks now. Things have been dead as a door nail, and quite frankly I've lowered my expectations a bit. Without going into exact numbers now I think we will be a bit below normal in the least for this year.

I'm not surprised either ... I really do not expect any significant developments until around the beginning of August anyways ... but once things kick in, look out. Deeper and much more in the way of truer tropical systems, and less of the well, let's say, the Grace's or Henri's or the Mindy's this year.

SF

[HurricaneBill]

Doesn't activity tend to occur in spurts?

Last year, it got quiet after Claudette and Danny in July. Then in late August to mid September, we had Erika, Fabian, Grace, Henri, and Isabel.

Then it got quiet again. Then in late September to mid October, Juan, Kate, Larry, Mindy, and Nicholas formed.

That's about 10 storms in 2 months.

[Anonymous]

Then another spurt with Odette and then Peter.

[bahamaswx]

Peter never got reviewed and upgraded to 'cane status did he? What a shame.

[cycloneye]

Doesn't activity tend to occur in spurts?

Last year, it got quiet after Claudette and Danny in July. Then in late August to mid September, we had Erika, Fabian, Grace, Henri, and Isabel.

Then it got quiet again. Then in late September to mid October, Juan, Kate, Larry, Mindy, and Nicholas formed.

That's about 10 storms in 2 months.

Those spurts are caused by the MJO factor.

[Steve H.]

Agree SF, watch out once it kicks in. Funny thing is our temps here in Florida are well above normal. Interestingly the only higher temps in July on record is 1980, and this has been true for the past week. 1980 seems to be the year Florida had extreme heat in July....and Allen. The southwesterly flow is causing the heat on the east coast of Florida now, and is expected to continue through the weekend. Isn't 1980 one of the analogs?

[Stormcenter]

I still feel it will be an active (12 -13 named storms)year.

I expect 1 to 2 named storms before the end of this month.

[rbaker]

I agree with most, that while we are having a slow start, doesn't mean a thing as far as getting systems fast, and maybe mutiple systems at same time.
I believe it was two years ago we had sort of the same scario with dry air plums coming off Africa, and was thinking it was going to be a dead year. Then wham-o the season was getting at least a depression about every week at least

[Rainband]

Way too early to make any conclusions about the season!!

[OuterBanker]

First named storm in 2000 was Alberto on 8/04 (it's last advisory was 8/23 wow). Not really all that unusual for Aug as a start. I know some are saying a bust, but there is just too much warm water in the w atlantic and gulf. I'm afraid that when things start to happen all hell will break loose. Looks like Gulf, Fl, and Carolina's are what most are thinking with higher than usual landfalls. Hope their wrong.

[The Dark Knight]

I dunno.........., it's been pretty quite for awhile..... Maybe it's the calm before the storm?????????We'll see.........

[Anonymous]

It's all relative. A quiet start now will likely "balance out" for a much more active main hurricane season later in August/September. This happens allot. Now, if absolutely nothing forms by late August, I would say it's fair to lower the predicted number of named storms.

[The Dark Knight]

Seems like you know what your talkin' about, kenl......

[Stormchaser16]

No reason whatsoever to lower the predicated numbers now....... still got PLENTY of time. Its not major factors tha are inhibiting the development of tropical systems like ENSO, the factors that are doing it are factors that can easily go away (SAL).. EVERYTHING that I can see STILL points to the Atlantic becoming more active as July closes and August rolls in.....

[Anonymous]

No reason whatsoever to lower the predicated numbers now....... still got PLENTY of time. Its not major factors tha are inhibiting the development of tropical systems like ENSO, the factors that are doing it are factors that can easily go away (SAL).. EVERYTHING that I can see STILL points to the Atlantic becoming more active as July closes and August rolls in.....

good point. In fact, even IF we do not see any named storms through late August (which would be unlikely), the season could explode by September, with storm after storm developing in the Atlantic/Carib/GOM basin so that by season's end the number of storms closely matches the predicted numbers. It usually evens out at the end, especially with no major inhibiting factors to suppress hurricane development, like you mentioned.

[Stormsfury]

Agree SF, watch out once it kicks in. Funny thing is our temps here in Florida are well above normal. Interestingly the only higher temps in July on record is 1980, and this has been true for the past week. 1980 seems to be the year Florida had extreme heat in July....and Allen. The southwesterly flow is causing the heat on the east coast of Florida now, and is expected to continue through the weekend. Isn't 1980 one of the analogs?

In my prelim numbers, 1980 wasn't used as an analog, although, that year was definitely thrown around during the winter season by many ...

Extreme heat was the word in July across most of the U.S., not just Florida ... Atlanta, GA on July 13th, 1980 hit 105º ... and Charleston, SC had many daily records for 1980, until July 1986 overtook many of those records set then.

One of the biggest differences this year compared to 1980 was the fact that 1980 was MUCH DRIER ... in fact, most of the country was suffering drought conditions, and this year has seen, despite the heat, a very active and stormy pattern throughout much of the U.S.

SF

[Anonymous]

Didn't Dallas,TX, have a record 46 consecutive 100's back in July 1980 ??
None of that extreme this year so far.

Ken

Agree SF, watch out once it kicks in. Funny thing is our temps here in Florida are well above normal. Interestingly the only higher temps in July on record is 1980, and this has been true for the past week. 1980 seems to be the year Florida had extreme heat in July....and Allen. The southwesterly flow is causing the heat on the east coast of Florida now, and is expected to continue through the weekend. Isn't 1980 one of the analogs?

In my prelim numbers, 1980 wasn't used as an analog, although, that year was definitely thrown around during the winter season by many ...

Extreme heat was the word in July across most of the U.S., not just Florida ... Atlanta, GA on July 13th, 1980 hit 105º ... and Charleston, SC had many daily records for 1980, until July 1986 overtook many of those records set then.

One of the biggest differences this year compared to 1980 was the fact that 1980 was MUCH DRIER ... in fact, most of the country was suffering drought conditions, and this year has seen, despite the heat, a very active and stormy pattern throughout much of the U.S.

SF

[USAwx1]

heat was centered over OK, MO, TX, AR in JUL 1980