Odds on Tropical Development in next 3 weeks?

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 1:23 pm

Looking into your models and making your best assumptions...

How does it look for the Myrtle Beach, SC area for the next 3 weeks?

Any input would be appreciated

VanceWxMan · #2 Postby **VanceWxMan** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 1:24 pm

I see nothing... prob wont see development until mid August at this point...then again I am still learning tropwx my strength is severe

Stormchaser16 · #3 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 1:25 pm

I think weve got 2-3 more weeks to go before we see any real action.....

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 1:27 pm

Thank you for your thoughts...it's our annual family beach trip and since it's been quiet thus far I figured we are due for a storm.

Stormchaser16 · #5 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 1:35 pm

Well IF a storm were to develop at this point..... i think the highest area for risk would be FL and the gulf coastline, not SC and points north due to the pattern right now (coldfronts seem to be dominating)... this is in part due to the western drought ridge that has persisted for much time now, until we see a decrease in the eastern trough i think much of the midatlantic is safe for the time being. 8-)

Enjoy the vacation, Myrtle beach is awesome, where u staying at?

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 1:47 pm

We are in North Myrtle for 2 days and then spend two weeks in Garden City, SC, which is about 15-20 miles south of Myrtle.
Just a regular beach bum 8-)

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 2:12 pm

It is unrealistic and borderline impossible to guarantee what conditions will be like in three weeks. Atmospheric conditions change with little or no notice. If you were asking about this week well the answer would be a little clearer. There is no development likely within the next few days or week for that matter. The upper level conditions aren't favorable. Best advice is check back in three weeks. :wink:

BTW Welcome

Stormchaser16 · #8 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 2:20 pm

While that is true it is quite easy to extrapolate beyond a week, and heres my thinking.... we have a trough forecast in the east by the ECMWF forming within a week and a half, this is likely to stay in place for a while the thinking is... this pretty much can shield the midatlantic and points north....

As far as development goes, nothing likely in the next week, if something dewvelops on week 2, if it were in the central and eastern Atlantic it would likely take beyond 5-7 days to reach the east coast if at all.... so while this is just guessing, its pretty logical to extrapolate in such a way

Rainband · #9 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 2:24 pm

I agree 16, thats why I said Guarantee

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 3:08 pm

Zzzzzzzzzzzz..........

At this moment the Atlantic is in dreamland or lalaland. 8-)

Stormchaser16 · #11 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 3:17 pm

Yes i know, nothing can ever be guarenteed, no one can guarentee that his vacation will not be interupted by mother nature, nor can anyone guarentee that it will.

I think we can all agree tho that with the atlantic in la la land, it is pretty safe to say that the chances of a signifigant tropical system affecting the SE within the next 2 weeks is slim. 8-)

Btw.... north myrtle is very nice, i have been there 4 times, all at the Beach Cove (very nice hotel)... numerous pools and hottubs, and literally right on the beach

corpusbreeze · #12 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 3:24 pm

Less than seven days we will see our first.

VanceWxMan · #13 Postby **VanceWxMan** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 3:35 pm

:o WHAT Please can you show us what you are seeing for this to happen? The upper levels are not ready or in line for tropical development yet. The SSTs are getting there but LESS THAN days???

As stated before I would like to see some evidence on this matter.

corpusbreeze · #14 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 3:47 pm

No evidence. Just feel like it will happen. And besides things are coming together for develpement. Things can change in a matter of a day. Watch and see. If Im wrong, oh well who really cares.

Stormchaser16 · #15 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:43 pm

And on a SIDE note....getting back to the tropics.......

VanceWxMan · #16 Postby **VanceWxMan** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 5:08 pm

looking at the latest NHC they show no tropical formation at least through Fri

VanceWxMan · #17 Postby **VanceWxMan** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 6:23 pm

Also the reason that I stated that it will be around Mid August is because, according to Climo the majority of Atlantic activity takes place during August-September-October, these being the peak months of a hurricane season.

Again I bring you facts to help state my case... This is not saying this always happens but if you take the current set-up...the SST's and the lack of good Easterly waves around the Sub Tropical High and what not it just strengthens my stance on what I stated...minus the Comment to the member.

chadtm80 · #18 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 6:36 pm

Admin Note:

Posts Deleted.. Keep discussions on the TROPICS please.. Take arguments to PM.. We will have a storm soon enough guys

Rainband · #19 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 6:38 pm

Hopefully, we need something to track :wink:

Website · #20 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 15, 2004 8:35 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Zzzzzzzzzzzz..........

At this moment the Atlantic is in dreamland or lalaland.

So am I.

Massive yawn. If it wasn't for Big Brother and the Presidential campaign it would be totally suicidal right now.

Odds on Tropical Development in next 3 weeks?

Odds on Tropical Development in next 3 weeks?

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