The Wave at 35w 15n can it develope?

[Guest]

My first time posting a topic.and hope I don't get ridicule for this But I just read Accuweather , Their 4:45 discussion statement reads that the wave at 35w 15n could develop is it possible?

[MGC]

Anything is possible. Odds are against it right now though....MGC

[rainstorm]

unlikely

[rbaker]

it's a little to low in latitude esp. for july

[Steve H.]

Don't write it off yet. There is a lot of convection associated with it. Check out the convection in west Africa....now that's impressive.

[Ola]

it's a little to low in latitude esp. for july

Could you explain the logic behind that?

[vbhoutex]

Don't write it off yet. There is a lot of convection associated with it.

At least one of the models brings that wave at 35W all the way into the W GOM in about a week and a half as at least a broad low pressure area. Definitely will be watching it. LOTS of obstacles for it to get through to develop at all though.

[KatDaddy]

Personal Extreme Crunch Time next 2.5 weeks......baby on the horizon

On the flip-side Alex being a threat would be just fitting.

[elw]

it's a little to low in latitude esp. for july

Could you explain the logic behind that?

The reason why tropical cyclones can't develop at a low Latitude is because the Coriolis force (which is responsible for creating the tropical cyclone's cyclonic spin) is zero at the equator, and increases poleward.

[HurricaneBill]

it's a little to low in latitude esp. for july

Could you explain the logic behind that?

The reason why tropical cyclones can't develop at a low Latitude is because the Coriolis force (which is responsible for creating the tropical cyclone's cyclonic spin) is zero at the equator, and increases poleward.

Of course, someone failed to mention this to Typhoon Vamei at the end of 2001.

[Derecho]

The reason why tropical cyclones can't develop at a low Latitude is because the Coriolis force (which is responsible for creating the tropical cyclone's cyclonic spin) is zero at the equator, and increases poleward.

Coriolis (probably more accurately described as an effect than a force) is the same at the same latitude with respect to the equator all over the world.

TCs ROUTINELY form within 10 degrees of the Equator in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans....around 5 degrees, while not routine, is not rare.

And of cource the aforementioned Vamei was a full fledged Typhoon at an incredible 2 degrees N of the equator.

Hence, it's not possible for the "lack of Coriolis" myth to be the cause of the almost complete absence of TCs farther S than 10N in the Atlantic basin.

Most plausible explanation seems to be the ITCZ is so far north (farther away from the equator in the Atlantic in summer than in any other basin, and it's the only ocean where the ITCZ doesn't dip S of the equator in Southern Hemisphere summer) when conditions are favorable shear and temp wise in the Atlantic ocean that you have few viable candidates TO form S of 10N.

[HurricaneBill]

Pacific TC that formed closest to the equator:
Typhoon Vamei 2001 1.5 degrees North latitude

Atlantic TC that formed closest to the equator:
Hurricane Isidore 1990 7.2 degrees North latitude

[Guest]

Could This new td be the same wave i mentioned here days ago?

[Hyperstorm]

Actually, it's the same wave that we've all been monitoring since it came off the African coast last week. I even created a topic referencing to a potential development since it looked quite healthy in the E. Atlantic.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=33307

It looks like the system did hold together and is on the verge of developing into a tropical storm. I believe it will do so, but I think it won't do so until late tomorrow at the earliest. It is still moving a little too fast to develop a real low-level circulation and the E. Caribbean isn't the most favorable area for development historically. However, it is quite likely that this system will become Alex.

Bonnie could also develop in the E. Atlantic with the powerful wave just offshore Africa....Interesting times ahead....