Op GFS shows no deep troffs as we get into August

[hurricanetrack]

Now I know this is only one run- but if the GFS usually overdoes the troffs (this is what I hear anyway) then what I see on the 18Z GFS is encouraging if you like to see hurricanes make their way west.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... loop.shtml

The 500MB pattern shows no big eastern troff by the first of August and in fact pulls it back to the Mississippi Valley- certainly not along the East Coast. So- if THAT pattern were to hold- then we'll be in for an action packed season.

Give it all 10 days to work out and then let's see what the upper pattern looks like. By then, the GFS will be peering a good two weeks into August and more clues might fall into place.

[MWatkins]

Yep...the ridge has shifted in the model over the last three runs. I replied to Derecho's post with a lot of detail...but the summary is:

Western Extent of 588DM Ridge around day 11:

00Z (last night): 75W (and much further North)
12Z GFS: 80W
18Z GFS: 100W

Waiting for the 0Z for tonight to add to the chart.

MW

[hurricanetrack]

I saw your good post on the return of the ridge. I will be eager to see the 00Z run.

By the way- does anyone know the answer to this question:

When the, say, 0Z GFS begins showing up on the NCO site- you get to see a new "frame" every few minutes until all 48 frames are loaded in- so to speak. Do we see this at the same time the folks at the NHC see it or do they see the GFS first and it comes out to the public later. Does that question make enough sense to answer?

I was just wondering if when we see any new GFS output coming in are we seeing it at the same time they are at NHC.

[MWatkins]

There's probably some delay as the HTML pages are created and published...so the operational folks probably see the runs a bit earlier than we do. But I wouldnt think it's muh different. I think we have some operational mets here who will know for sure though.

MW

[stormchazer]

If this holds true....South Florida and the Gulf States could see trouble this year. As most of you have seen I'm sure, there have been several interesting newspaper articles pointing out just this paticular setup and the potential effect on FDL and the US.

[Stormchaser16]

Storm I just noticed something in your sig that struck me as odd, u have 15 storms, 9 named and 3 major, isnt the format usually named/canes/major? Are you saying we only have 9 named storms this season? Not attacking you here, I am just trying to figure out what you are saying cause I am a bit confused.... do you mean 15 named, 9 canes and 3 major?

[stormchazer]

Storm I just noticed something in your sig that struck me as odd, u have 15 storms, 9 named and 3 major, isnt the format usually named/canes/major? Are you saying we only have 9 named storms this season? Not attacking you here, I am just trying to figure out what you are saying cause I am a bit confused.... do you mean 15 named, 9 canes and 3 major?

LOL...thanks...I am officially a "dork"

[Stormchaser16]

Heh no problem...... just struck me as odd lol so I thought I would check with you to see if it was an error