Morning Discussion

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:13 am

http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:36 am

Great discussion!

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:23 am

Dry air entrainment is visible in the last SSMI pass...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

weatherlover427 · #4 Postby **weatherlover427** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:26 am

Pessimism kills. It won't get you anywhere.

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:28 am

Joshua21Young wrote:Pessimism kills. It won't get you anywhere.

What pessimism? The dry air is there...can't ignore it.

weatherlover427 · #6 Postby **weatherlover427** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:32 am

Once it's mentioned the system will die.

Like the wx here. Monsoon looked great last week. Then they mentioned debris clouds. After that, we had too many of them, and our monsoon was dead for the remainder of the week, into the weekend.

That kind of thing.

Matthew5 · #7 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:34 am

Many more factors are going for this! Don't look away for a second this time of the year

For it!

1# Low wind shear
2# Upper level high
3# Warm ocean waters
4# Already showing that it may have a low pressure near the surface.(Quickscats not all there. But doe's show curving on what it doe's show.)
5# Its late July!

Against it

1# A little dry air.

So this very well could be a pulse down then up kind of system. We need to keep watching it.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:59 am

one more small thing against it:
it's moving rather quickly

Thunder44 · #9 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:10 am

Here's what the TPC had to say about the dry air in their 8:05 TWD:

CARIBBEAN...
A NARROW/WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM PUERTO RICO WSW TO A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER NICARAGUA NEAR
13N86W. THE UPPER LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE AIDING SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE STRONGEST BEING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OVER LAKE MARACAIBO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/
VERY DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR DOMINATES THE AREA FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 64W-85W LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE S MIGRATION OF THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CAUSING SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN TO BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THIS CLOSE TO AUGUST.

The Dark Knight · #10 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:12 am

I agree............ :wink:

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