18Z Models On the Way

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

18Z Models On the Way

#1 Postby MWatkins » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:41 pm

The runs aren't done yet...but the initial conditions are:

11.6N 57.3W
Winds: 30 knots
Movement: 275 (west) at 21 knots
Pressure: 1011MB

I guess just post on this thread when you see them...somebody will see them before I do.

MW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#2 Postby lilbump3000 » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:43 pm

This system sure looks like its getting its act together quickly looking at the latest visible loops.
0 likes   
Top
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

#3 Postby MWatkins » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:51 pm

Ah...here they are:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR.0407191914

MW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148496
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:53 pm

Mike ships still sees a hurricane from this but is that overdone?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
chadtm80

#5 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:54 pm

Thanks Mike!
0 likes   
Top
kevin

#6 Postby kevin » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:55 pm

Interesting! They have it going below cuba.
120 hours out..
16.1N 81.8W
18.2N 78.9W
15.0N 82.6W

by the way, don't take my word for it (since I'm working with a globe instead of a sat picture of where the lines of lat long are.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38258
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#7 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:56 pm

Thanks! 8-)
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#8 Postby lilbump3000 » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:57 pm

Kevin you are right them plots are well south of cuba going into the yucatan.
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#9 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:01 pm

Updated model map....

http://independentwx.com/AL972004.png
0 likes   
Top
kevin

#10 Postby kevin » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:01 pm

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM :::SDEPTH = M::: << What does the sdepth = m mean? Is that indicating midlevel circulation???
0 likes   
Top
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

#11 Postby MWatkins » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:17 pm

What does the sdepth = m mean? Is that indicating midlevel circulation???


That is used for the steering depth. Steering depth is a function of a systems intensity...

S = Shallow
M = Medium
D = Deep

MW
0 likes   
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#12 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:36 pm

Freaking GREAT, this will pose a problem for my cruise for the western Carib. leaving out of NO this weekend!!!!!!!!!!!! :grr:
0 likes   
My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
alicia-w
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6400
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 2:55 pm
Location: Tijeras, NM

#13 Postby alicia-w » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:41 pm

you didnt really want to go on that cruise anyway. be a sport and stay in destin and fight all those tourists with the rest of us. 8-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vacanechaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Portsmouth, Va
Contact:
Contact vacanechaser

#14 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:54 pm

almost 100mph so says the ships at 120 hours... thats much stronger than ealier...
0 likes   
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#15 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:57 pm

:eek:
Looks like this could be a GOM threat by the weekend. Get ready to roll everybody! Sorry about your cruise Dean, but I'll take your spot if you don't wanna go :wink: .
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1545
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#16 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:00 pm

A track very near Jamaica is plausable.. but 82kts in 120hrs seems to be well overdone.
0 likes   
Top
NorthGaWeather

#17 Postby NorthGaWeather » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:12 pm

Yes it is probaley overdone but if this thing does develop I see a strong tropical storm south of Cuba heading for the SE Gulf by the weekend.
Last edited by NorthGaWeather on Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#18 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:13 pm

alicia-w wrote:you didnt really want to go on that cruise anyway. be a sport and stay in destin and fight all those tourists with the rest of us. 8-)



Has it been unbelievable this year or what? Everybody's mother and brother here on vacation this year. I've got to get out of this town or I'm liable to go POSTAL!!!!!!!!!! I got ran off the road twice today, they look everywhere but the FREAKIN road!

BLAM, BLAM, BLLLLLAAAAAMMMMMMMMMMM!!
0 likes   
My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Renata
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 96
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2003 8:19 pm
Location: Holetown, Barbados

#19 Postby Renata » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:22 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Freaking GREAT, this will pose a problem for my cruise for the western Carib. leaving out of NO this weekend!!!!!!!!!!!! :grr:


No it won't - unless it's a yacht. Enjoy the gentle roll of the ship and take motion sickness tablets one hour before sailing and you'll be fine - drinks lots of Caribbean rum and have widl sex at night and you'll be fine!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
The Dark Knight
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 800
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
Contact:
Contact The Dark Knight

#20 Postby The Dark Knight » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:32 pm

drinks lots of Caribbean rum and have widl sex at night and you'll be fine!



Hahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 121 guests