Dr. Lyons - No Development!

Thunder44 · #1 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:56 pm

Dr. Lyons on TWC just said he doesn't think 97L will develop and it looks like it's weakening now.

#2 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:57 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Dr. Lyons on TWC just said he doesn't think 97L will develop and it looks like it's weakening now.

If he said that then I'm really worried something will develop
from this wave. :lol:

kevin · #3 Postby **kevin** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:57 pm

Is that right? Wow.. it looked like it was becoming more organized to my eyes. Guess I was wrong.

Opal storm · #4 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:58 pm

Local mets here in Pensacola and Mobile are saying the same thing.Maybe this is all hype :roll:

lilbump3000 · #5 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:58 pm

All I can do right now at Dr. Lyons is just laugh.

PTrackerLA · #6 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:59 pm

Wow I really don't see how they can say this thing is weakening. I'll see what our local met says tonight.

Weather4Life23 · #7 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:00 pm

Wow that is really surprising.

kevin · #8 Postby **kevin** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:00 pm

We'll hear from the NHC is ~30 minutes, and they'll let us know whether it might develop or not.

Thunder44 · #9 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:06 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 19, 2004

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A vigorous tropical wave...centered about 220 miles east of the
Windward Islands...is moving rapidly westward near 25 mph.
This system has become better organized today and has the potential
to develop into a tropical depression over the next day or so.
Even if there is no additional development...the wave is expected
to be accompanied by briefly heavy rains and wind gusts to near
tropical storm force as it moves through the Windward Islands
tonight.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.
Forecaster Jarvinen
$$

Somehow I don't think the NHC and Lyons see eye to :lol:

eye

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:07 pm

LOL!

Who is Steve Lyons? :lol:

I miss John Hope. :cry:

#11 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:11 pm

Looks like Dr. Steve Lions doesn't talk very much with his pals in the National Hurricane Center. Something more, I don't know if it's my cable company, but the TWC looks to have a very low tone, their voice are almost impossible to hear, even if you put the TV's volume in the maximum. I don't know what is happening.

#12 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:13 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Somehow I don't think the NHC and Lyons see eye to eye

I didn't see the broadcast...but he may have pointed out that convection is on the downturn right now...at least down near where the presumed center is. I don't think I see any reason why it would be weakening though...that suprises me a little but maybe he's seeing something we're not.

MW

#13 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:15 pm

That is what staying in Hotlanta too long will get you, CRAZY!

Renata · #14 Postby **Renata** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:17 pm

I agree with Lyons, it does seem to be weakening but am not sure what's up ahead of it to either enhance or diminish showers.

Thunder44 · #15 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:19 pm

[quote="MWatkins
I didn't see the broadcast...but he may have pointed out that convection is on the downturn right now...at least down near where the presumed center is. I don't think I see any reason why it would be weakening though...that suprises me a little but maybe he's seeing something we're not.

MW[/quote]

He said something about the northern extent of clouds spreading outward not inward, which a sign of weakening. But I thought that's the system expanding and showing more outflow.

#16 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:20 pm

TWC gets all their info from the NHC. I don't think TWC is allowed to stray from what the NHC is saying. I could be wrong about this..

Thunder44 · #17 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:24 pm

Trader Ron wrote:TWC gets all their info from the NHC. I don't think TWC is allowed to stray from what the NHC is saying. I could be wrong about this..

I don't think he wants to upset the NHC by going completely against them. I wouldn't be suprised if he changed his tone a bit in his next update.

#18 Postby **Dave C** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:27 pm

He was mentioning outflow boundries moving westward from the cloud area. He also mentioned climatology which is against development when they enter eastern Carrabean. I checked the buoys in the area (to it's north) and there was pressure falls during last hr 30.00 down to 29.97. The t.storms seem to be firing pretty good to it's north with some banding features. Dry air upstream may be a limiting factor though.

rainstorm · #19 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:29 pm

dr lyons is right. it is now hitting the carib wall of death. a john hope rule. if it isnt a well-developed circ before it gets to the carib, forget it. plus there is a strong ull to its north

caneman · #20 Postby **caneman** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:31 pm

Forget it - hardly. Many systems wait and develop in Central or Western Caribb.

Dr. Lyons - No Development!

Dr. Lyons - No Development!

Re: Dr. Lyons - No Development!

Lyons......

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