Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 19, 2004
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A vigorous tropical wave...centered about 220 miles east of the
Windward Islands...is moving rapidly westward near 25 mph.
This system has become better organized today and has the potential
to develop into a tropical depression over the next day or so.
Even if there is no additional development...the wave is expected
to be accompanied by briefly heavy rains and wind gusts to near
tropical storm force as it moves through the Windward Islands
tonight.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.
Forecaster Jarvinen
$$
5:30 TWO
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It would seem, therefore that the convection is displaced at least 200 nm from the wave axis because that convection at 5 pm is already well over the Windward Islands.
That therefore leads to a question about development and organization. If the system is becoming better organised as per the discussion then that is in reference to the convection which therefore is not 220 east of the Windward Islands as the forecaster claims.
Sometimes the outlook can be so opaque.
That therefore leads to a question about development and organization. If the system is becoming better organised as per the discussion then that is in reference to the convection which therefore is not 220 east of the Windward Islands as the forecaster claims.
Sometimes the outlook can be so opaque.
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