Yucatan Western Gulf???

[vacanechaser]

I dont think by looking at the hurricane models that the east coast has anything to worry about... The GFS burps up a nice low off the Carolina coast later in the run and moves it towards Hatteras and so on... But watching the GFS run, it appears to split, some energy goes north and the rest west... If this thing could slow just a little bit, the Yucatan and western Gulf MAY have something to watch... I dont think right now the east coast is a likley scenario... Looks a bit far south for that, and reminds me of Lili.. This is where she fired up 2 years ago...

As long as the upper level low moves west with it, it has a chance to ventilate... Al though there is a good amount of shear headed across the Dominican Republic... Just a thought.. Looks better now than it did this morning.. We should all remember, they do this in the beginning stages (wax and wane)...

[rbaker]

gom pressures are a little higher today than yesterday. Weak front and trough are starting to lift up, but still some fast westerlies over central and north fla. No new convection firing up, so this diminishes a transfer of a mid lat system developing into a tropical system for now.

[HouTXmetro]

So what do you think about it today? Yucatan/Western Gulf seems more and more likely to me.

[Derecho]

So what do you think about it today? Yucatan/Western Gulf seems more and more likely to me.

Don't forget the ever unpopular Yucatan/never touching the Gulf scenario.

[Aquawind]

So what do you think about it today? Yucatan/Western Gulf seems more and more likely to me.

Don't forget the ever unpopular Yucatan/never touching the Gulf scenario.

boo hisss well said..

[wxman57]

Take a look at this 72-hr forecast of 500 mb streamlines and tell me why the disturbance will move perpendicular to the wind flow and enter the Gulf:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb2.gif">

[yoda]

Hmm, interesting. Although I can't read the map.. what 's that in the Bahamas?

[Portastorm]

Once again, 57 ... thanks for putting some perspective on the situation.

I was curious about any eventual track in the western GOM. These 500 mb progs make it hard to believe this disturbance will do anything but hit the southern Yucatan or Belize.

[Stormcenter]

So may I ask is this set in stone and the GOM is safe?

[jlauderdal]

So may I ask is this set in stone and the GOM is safe?

At this point there is only one place for this thing to go as depicted by wxman57's map.

[Stormcenter]

So may I ask is this set in stone and the GOM is safe?

At this point there is only one place for this thing to go as depicted by wxman57's map.

If that's the case why are local mets concerned about it entering the GOM? I guess things could and probably will change in 72 hours.

[Portastorm]

Well, I don't know if anyone is "safe" at the moment but the upper level winds right now appear unfavorable for any disturbance to head northwest into the GOM.

It should be noted, however, that the Brownsville forecast office this morning suggests that the upper level ridge will shift north and west early next week.

Should be interesting if this puppy keeps growing and developing ...

[Trader Ron]

Looks like it will get buried in the Yucatan to me. Of course,things can change.

[vacanechaser]

the map is an interesting feture to look at... however, this wave continues to gain latitude... that would appear, atleast for now too me to be going against the pattern shown on the map... now that being said... if this thing continues to stay weak, it has a chance i believe to move more on a west north west path... the stronger it gets, it could get into those steering currents that would turn it back west or southwest... will be interesting to see what happens.... you know hurricanetrack and i are ready to head out if it does threaten the gulf coast...

[Steve]

Bringing complete sentences back to the White House? No more strategery and nukular? Heh.
--------------------------------------------------------
57,

We've all been wrong before, but the 500mb streamlines can't possibly be for Saturday July 21st since July 21st was yesterday . Still, if you go to the 48 hour forecast, the strongest winds in the Gulf are about 15k @ 300-850 (m/s)

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

Now I realize with a coldfront dropping down, there's liable to be a jet between the system and the upper high with winds much stronger than that, but it would seem that the liklihood of winds playing a huge factor in steering won't be there. FWIW, Joe B noted today that with the coming "B-North" pattern, Gulf Coast winds west of New Orleans will be out of the Northeast while the winds further east will remain out of the SE allowing for a potential avenue for the system to come up. He hasn't given any indications as to what and where that might be, but I gleaned MS/AL/NW FL from his hypothesis.

Steve

[Rainband]

000
FLUS42 KTBW 210926
HWOTBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
518 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-211400-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
518 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE FORT MYERS
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SLOW DOWN AND MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING
DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES THROUGH 8 AM.

ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS FROM BRADENTON TO FORT MYERS MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
TROUGH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FILTER IN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

$$
NOAH