1.5 T number for 97L=16.1n-71.2w

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:32 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Interesting the classification to 1.5 from too weak and it shows that the winds are around 25 kts.To have a TD it has to go up to 2.0.See chart below for the classifications.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

The Dark Knight · #2 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:34 am

Oh yessss..... it's finally going somewhere....

Aquawind · #3 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:39 am

Cool..maybe a positive on that flight plan afterall..they will probably still hold off unless they figure it's a threat to land like DR/Haiti..chances for a flight tomorrow jumped considerably..

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:41 am

Aquawind wrote:Cool..maybe a positive on that flight plan afterall..they will probably still hold off unless they figure it's a threat to land like DR/Haiti..chances for a flight tomorrow jumped considerably..

Agree 100%.

The Dark Knight · #5 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:43 am

Yes, I agree...... It makes sense.....

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:44 am

I wouldn't get too excited. Take a peek at a current visible image of the system. You can clearly see a large ring 200 miles across to the west of the convection, centered near 16.6N/72.9W. That looks like hte mid level circulation racing west away from that thunderstorm to the east. Dvorak isn't "smart" enough to realize what's happening.

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:44 am

It does not have to go up to 2.0/2.0. I've seen TD's at 1.0/1.0. What it needs to have is a closed circulation, nothing more, Dvorak withstanding

Remember, Allison only had 1.5/1.5, yet it was close to hurricane intensity

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:46 am

The question is if a LLC may be forming.

The Dark Knight · #9 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:48 am

Good point........

Derecho · #10 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:56 am

wxman57 wrote:I wouldn't get too excited. Take a peek at a current visible image of the system. You can clearly see a large ring 200 miles across to the west of the convection, centered near 16.6N/72.9W. That looks like hte mid level circulation racing west away from that thunderstorm to the east. Dvorak isn't "smart" enough to realize what's happening.

Of course the circ (and it appears to be low level now, a "storm relative" circ though as the W winds are slower than the eastward movement speed) isn't centered under the convection.

However, it's not clear at all it's "racing west" farther out from under the convection, Will require another hour of visible.

Interestingly you can see outflow extending WEST from the convection; appears to be a case of upper-mid level shear, with no shear at the 200mb level, something that happened a few times last year.

The Dark Knight · #11 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:58 am

Hmmmmm...........

Derecho · #12 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:59 am

Looks like an outflow boundary shooting out to the NW again, though (poor sign for development.)

Aquawind · #13 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:13 am

Looking at the zoomed visable sure is impressive with the deep convection in the middle... looks like those tops are rotating or trying...
:crazyeyes:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Will it blowout like yesterday?? Outflow boundries..ugh

Josephine96 · #14 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:19 am

Could be interesting the next few days as it progresses.. I'm just wishing for our 1st named storm lol

Derecho · #15 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:22 am

I'm having difficulty telling whether stuff is old outflow boundaries or exposed CU lines of an LLC.

yoda · #16 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:25 am

Same here Derecho

yoda · #17 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:26 am

Derecho, could this help some?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

(Thanks go to Dark Knight.. for finding the website)

Aquawind · #18 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:31 am

Derecho wrote:I'm having difficulty telling whether stuff is old outflow boundaries or exposed CU lines of an LLC.

Ditto.. With yesterdays massive ouflow it would be shocking if the same didn't happen today..I do not see a obvious boundry right now though..part of the problem is with the speed and the expansion in general...

GalvestonDuck · #19 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:36 am

Aquawind wrote:Looking at the zoomed visable sure is impressive with the deep convection in the middle... looks like those tops are rotating or trying...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Will it blowout like yesterday?? Outflow boundries..ugh

I LOVE the zoomability on this site!

The Dark Knight · #20 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:53 am

I hope that this storm does something SOON!!! This storm has EVERYONE on their feet!!!!! Watching and waiting.....

1.5 T number for 97L=16.1n-71.2w

1.5 T number for 97L=16.1n-71.2w

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