Special feature

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ALONG 71W/72W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER
POPPING OUT WEST OF THE CONVECTION FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT THE
FEATURE HAS SINCE MOVED BACK UNDER THE CANOPY OF THE ASSOCIATED
TSTMS. WHEN THE CIRCULATION WAS EXPOSED...IT WAS NOT CLEAR THAT
IT WAS AT THE SURFACE AND A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING
AGREED BY NOT SHOWING A WLY WIND COMPONENT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE TROPICAL WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 15-20 KT OF WLY SHEAR COURTESY OF A
STATIONARY MID/UPPER LOW N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT THE SHEAR
MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER W OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED S
OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 68W-73W. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NW. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-3
INCHES...ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

[vbhoutex]

Just taking a close look at the visible sat images. Can not tell for sure if that LLCC is still there or not, but it appears to me that as they say, it is under the convecition and somewhere around 15.5N, 71.0W if it is still there. Definitely is trying to close off a LLCC imo if it hasn't already. It is still very weak and will possibly come and go, but best guess is that we may have a TD by tomorrow afternoon at the latest, if not a weak TS if the conditions become more favorable more quickly than they anticipate.

[Yankeegirl]

Do ya think that Houston is in its reaches?

[GalvestonDuck]

Shhhhhhhhoooosh!

[vbhoutex]

It truly is too far out to tell at this point. It is in the realm of possibility, but not in the realm of probability based on current model progs for this system. How is that for sidestepping a definite answer?

My own initial thoughts on it are that we will not have to worry about it, but possibly S TX might have a possibility of getting some Northern fringes if it develops and if it makes it across the Yucatan.

GD!!! Love your reply!!!!