Will wave at tropical atlantic be the next player?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:11 pm

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED 1500 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG
35W S OF 17N. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC BETWEEN 28W AND 44W...AND
THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...MAYBE DRIFTING W
A BIT...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS COMPOSED OF TWO SEPARATE TROPICAL WAVES. A SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED ALONG 43W WITH STRONGER CURVATURE
NEAR 39W AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE IS FARTHER ALONG THAN
ANALYZED...WHICH WOULD GIVE IT A SPEED OF 15-20 KT. THE GFS
TRACKS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT AND MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG
43W AND HAS IT REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SAT MORNING. ALL
TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ.

I haved followed this wave from when it was inside Africa and I called it a Bomb at that time but it weakened as it splashed into the water but it looks like it may come back and it has a mid level circulation so let's see if this wave will be our next topic of conversation beside whatever 97L does.

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 5:40 pm

I am watching that too Luis!! :wink:

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 5:45 pm

Rainband wrote:I am watching that too Luis!!

If it begins to gather some thunderstorms I can see 98L invest up pretty soon in a couple of days or earlier.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 5:48 pm

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 5:56 pm

I agree

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:03 pm

Steve Lyons said in the tropical update that the circulation was at the surface and not at mid levels so if that is true then more we have to watch this one.

KatDaddy · #7 Postby **KatDaddy** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:10 pm

It has a large circulation and will have more of a chance to develop than our disorganized Caribbean wave.

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:12 pm

I agree Kat Daddy. :wink:

Thanks Luis for the Steve Lyons info

Derecho · #9 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:13 pm

There's still a huge amount of quite dry air out there in the central Tropical Atlantic.

Pressures dropped to 1006 mb in Senegal today, however.

HUC · #10 Postby **HUC** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:13 pm

We had to whatch this one closely,for sure

HUC · #11 Postby **HUC** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:21 pm

Can someone tell me how i can send images in this forum??

Derecho · #12 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:33 pm

Yeah, there's a little circ in the ITCZ on the latest QS pass just in:

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#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:34 pm

Hmmm very interesting turning there at quickScat.

Stormchaser16 · #14 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:37 pm

This one IMO has a much better chance at developing only because the system is barely drifting west, which unlike our Invest is allowing it to close off a west wind. Any LLC that does develop would remain intact under the system and not race out ahead of it(as is the problem with our invest)..... if more convection can fire tonight then maybe something more can get cooking with this one.

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:38 pm

Saw this wave earlier and out of the two areas of interest, this one looks better ATT ...

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:43 pm

Moist air is in a big area down in the ITCZ but more north more dry air lingers so it will have to contend with that factor but I agree with SF that it looks better than 97L at this point.

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:54 pm

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS IS A LARGE
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED ON
SATELLITE WITH AREAS OF AFRICAN DUST/DRY AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE
NE SIDE OF THE WAVE. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

This is the 8:05 PM EDT discussion about this wave.

Thunder44 · #18 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:06 pm

Something to watch in the future, but right now 97L is the one to watch.

The_Cycloman_PR · #19 Postby **The_Cycloman_PR** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Rainband wrote:I am watching that too Luis!!

If it begins to gather some thunderstorms I can see 98L invest up pretty soon in a couple of days or earlier.

I agree also. This TW has a large circulation and it's moving slow. It also appear on the quikscat with a nice rotation. It's moving into a nice and favorable area for development after 40W. It could be our next player.

Question is if the wave does'nt develop by the time it reach the islands how will be it's interaction with the dry air in the eastern Caribbean and the ULL north of it? The ULL is still stationary to the north of PR, question is how long it will be stationed and for how long it will remain strong before it begin to weaken. Maybe the ULL will move away to the northeast pulled by the system emerging from the US, or the ULL will get weaker by the time the wave reach the islands. Of course the wave also could develop before it reach the Caribbean, for that it will have to gain convection that it does'nt have right now, after that we'll see where it goes(to the Caribbean or northwest following the ULL) and how strong it get's, but that's big time gessing right now. 97L appeared from nothing after it passed 45W and this wave is almost getting there so let's see.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 7:22 pm

Cycloman your points are very valid ones that I agree with.

Will wave at tropical atlantic be the next player?

Will wave at tropical atlantic be the next player?

Quite Correct Cyclone

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