Sizable convection surge.........

[dixiebreeze]

all around PR this afternoon, south as well as northwest of the Island:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[The_Cycloman_PR]

A wet day for us overhere...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.tjua.shtml

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.tjua.shtml

[dixiebreeze]

I know this convection spurt was noted in an earlier post, but it does appear to be increasing this afternoon.

[stormchazer]

TWD does not give it hope...

...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC IS CAUSING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST S OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS A LESS FAVORABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
ELSEWHERE...

[cycloneye]

[img]
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST SUN JUL 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LEADING EDGE OF AXIS OF NEGATIVELY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS
EASTERN HISPANOLA WITH THE TRAILING EDGE EXTENDING FROM ACROSS
PUERTO RICO SOUTHEAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. VERY UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE/CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH SOME
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES WEST NORTHWEST. THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER AS THE
WAVE EXITS THE REGION. WHILE THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF THIS WAVE AND TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...THE THINNING OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT HEATING TO COMBINE WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE ISLAND. ALSO OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS WILL AID IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG SOME OF THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS
ACTIVITY RATHER WELL AND SUGGEST GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER BY EARLY MORNING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
THETA-E FIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION SUGGEST SOME
EARLY MORNING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEREFORE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REFLECT THIS WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

Interaction with upper low is enhancing convection and aiding thunderstorms but nothing more. [/img]

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you, Luis. Guess that takes care of the PR flare.