Tuesday's Blob Watch Areas (Bahamas & BOC)

[Stormcenter]

The Bahamas is today's blob watch area. You can also add the BOC to the blob watch areas.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Guest]

what about the stuff to the right of that? What is that?

[kittcat]

This year we've had several tropical waves pass over South Florida with advertised high pops, however they all seem to wash out once they arrive. I hope we get some much needed rain, but I'm not counting on it.

[CocoaBill]

If that blob maintained those red topped heights for 48 hours......... - we have a little TC to contend with......

[Dave C]

I know yesterday Steve Lyons mentioned that it was fast trade wind flow slowing down(causing vertical motion) in the Bahamas leading to convection. This same thing happens when fast flow hits certral America causing convection to flare-up. Definately an area where persistance is the key.

[HouTXmetro]

Can the BOC system move north?

[Dave C]

I just ran a loop of water-vapor and the area in BOC appears to be an upper-low, you can see the cyclonic rotation in the upper clouds. It appears to be on the southern end of a trough extending NE-SW through the Gulf of Mexico.

[vbhoutex]

Can the BOC system move north?

No it would be almost impossible for it to move in a Northerly direction with the current NE-SW air flow pattern in the GOM right now.

[Swimdude]

I'm sure everyone has noticed that this "promising looking blob" in the Bahamas has completely dissolved every night for the past 3 days, leaving not much room for development. It will soon be over Flordia anyway...

[Derecho]

If that blob maintained those red topped heights for 48 hours......... - we have a little TC to contend with......

Where on earth do you get that idea?

The whole "persistence" idea is both mis-used and overrated.

Yes, all things which DO form into TCs had persistent convection, however, plenty of features over water with persistent convection don't form TCs and never really had the chance to.

There are plenty of upper-level generated features that can persist for quite some time (3+ days) over tropical waters that never really have any particular chance to be a TC. And there's no magical time of persistence of these features where they suddenly become something that needs to be watched for TC development.

[Dave C]

Derecho makes a good point, although I do hear some forecasters(outside this board) use that term..persistance and I used it in an earlier post . Many weather channel mets, Mark Mancuso,Rich Johnson and other of their better mets often say that during their tropical updates. The things to look for,falling pressures, quick scat winds etc. would probably be better suited as opposed to "persistant convection" in my opinion.

[rbaker]

good wording for "persistant convection" but really means same thing. Speaking of pressures and winds, all pressures in e fla and ship reports and nas are reporting 1015-1017mb for now and not falling. However alot of convection off of east coast from mia an mlb radars moving nw. So at least some heavy rain may be coming in.