Argument for Gulf Development Strengthens

[MWatkins]

Whelp...the argument for Gulf development just got stronger...the system is now hitting the UKMET tropical cyclone guidance. Again...keep in mind that the UKMET model has been the furthest west of any of the guidance...but the fact that it is jumping on the Gulf and not the Atlantic disturbance is a key development.

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

The good news is that we should have some time to watch this system...

MW

[Nimbus]

Looking at the water vapor loop 90L looks to be forming under an upper level high pressure system.

Near 24.5 N 76 W there is little shear since that appears to be the center of the high pressure area. Most of the convection has been further to the east closer to the keys but as the wave moves west it should see more favorable conditions.

99L looks like it is too close to an ULL circulation to develop much in the short term, but the ULL may be forecast to move out or weaken.

[Nimbus]

Excuse me that should have read.

Near 24.5 N 76 W there is little shear since that appears to be the center of the high pressure area.

[corpusbreeze]

I'm sorry I just don't see it. The Gulf system just does not look impressive, but the Bahamas system looks to be developing right now. I think the East coast needs to be on the look out.

[Brent]

I'm sorry I just don't see it. The Gulf system just does not look impressive, but the Bahamas system looks to be developing right now. I think the East coast needs to be on the look out.

I completely agree.

[The Dark Knight]

We are here on the Eastern Seaboard.. All of the local Mets here on the Cape are all over this Bahama system..... We will see...

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry I just don't see it. The Gulf system just does not look impressive, but the Bahamas system looks to be developing right now. I think the East coast needs to be on the look out.

My $$$ is on the GOM system. Looks may be deceiving.
The Atlantic may still take awhile.

[vbhoutex]

Atlantic system will definitely take a good while to pop if it does. The ULL has to get out of the way first.

GOMer system does look very disorganized also, If it continues to be slow to organize, which looks to be the case right now I's put my money 50/50 on these systems.

I still see nothing definitive to give me a clue which is organizing more quickly.

[Johnny]

The bahama system looks nice on a satellite loop but don't let your eyes fool you. My money is also in the G.O.M. system.

[Air Force Met]

Corpus and Brent,

Go to http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

and do a high res (100%) medium zoom extended loop (15 frames) on the GOM system. Also go to http://moe.met.fsu.edu/buoydata/regions/gulfplot.html and look at the current obs. You will see what we are looking at.

For a tropical system to get going...you need convection. Most tropical waves have really great convection but never really get a LLC. Now...our system in the GOM already has a broad LLC. It is a very broad area of low pressure...but it is a closed low. The vis loop shows that it is trying to become more concentrated.

One thing about the broad areas of low pressure...it usually takes them a little while to get going...and it will take this one a while...a day or two...to get some convection near its core. But...it already has a good low level circ...it just needs to move a little more westward and get under some easterlies. The thing to look for on this system is one good convective burst...with a LLC already in place...that is all it will take. It will then be off to the races. The broad LLC on the GOM system is encomassing a really large area...which means it is not going to open up into a wave anytime soon...so it has some time.

I think it is more a matter of when...than if...for both of these.

[vbhoutex]

Thanks AFM for a great explanation of why this could happen even though it looks very disorganized.

[chadtm80]

Corpus and Brent,

Go to http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

and do a high res (100%) medium zoom extended loop (15 frames) on the GOM system. Also go to http://moe.met.fsu.edu/buoydata/regions/gulfplot.html and look at the current obs. You will see what we are looking at.

For a tropical system to get going...you need convection. Most tropical waves have really great convection but never really get a LLC. Now...our system in the GOM already has a broad LLC. It is a very broad area of low pressure...but it is a closed low. The vis loop shows that it is trying to become more concentrated.

One thing about the broad areas of low pressure...it usually takes them a little while to get going...and it will take this one a while...a day or two...to get some convection near its core. But...it already has a good low level circ...it just needs to move a little more westward and get under some easterlies. The thing to look for on this system is one good convective burst...with a LLC already in place...that is all it will take. It will then be off to the races. The broad LLC on the GOM system is encomassing a really large area...which means it is not going to open up into a wave anytime soon...so it has some time.

I think it is more a matter of when...than if...for both of these.

Excellent explanation AFM!! Thanks. I agree with you 110% We will definatly still have something to watch through the weekend

[vbhoutex]

Ok, am I becoming a "wishcaster"? Looking at that loop, it appears to me that the convection is trying to concentrate around an apparent possible LLCC under the heavier convection. Am I seeing things because I want to see them or is there something possibly begginning, ever so slowly, to happen.

[corpusbreeze]

Thanks airforce met great thread. I was not writing the GOM system off, I just think 99L has better chance out the two to go first. The GOM system needs to move west to get going but the question is how far west can it go until it swept north.

[southerngale]

Corpus and Brent,

Go to http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

and do a high res (100%) medium zoom extended loop (15 frames) on the GOM system. Also go to http://moe.met.fsu.edu/buoydata/regions/gulfplot.html and look at the current obs. You will see what we are looking at.

For a tropical system to get going...you need convection. Most tropical waves have really great convection but never really get a LLC. Now...our system in the GOM already has a broad LLC. It is a very broad area of low pressure...but it is a closed low. The vis loop shows that it is trying to become more concentrated.

One thing about the broad areas of low pressure...it usually takes them a little while to get going...and it will take this one a while...a day or two...to get some convection near its core. But...it already has a good low level circ...it just needs to move a little more westward and get under some easterlies. The thing to look for on this system is one good convective burst...with a LLC already in place...that is all it will take. It will then be off to the races. The broad LLC on the GOM system is encomassing a really large area...which means it is not going to open up into a wave anytime soon...so it has some time.

I think it is more a matter of when...than if...for both of these.

Thanks...good post. Is this supposed to move much the next few days?

[Janie34]

NWS-Mobile starting to really pick up on the Gulf low, and normally Mobile will err on the conservative side of a wx event:

EXTENDED...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MOUTH OF
THE MS BY SUN (IN BOTH THE GFS AND ETA). THE GFS CONTINUES THE TREND
BY DRAWING IT UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH...SLOWLY MOVING IT
NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SE LA/SE MS ON MON. IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...WE WOULD PROBABLY SEE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MON. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR OUT
TO GET OVERLY DETAILED ATTM...WE DID UP THE WINDS A BIT SUN-TUE AND
WE HOISTED THE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY SUN AND MON. THE
GULF LOW BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SEEING THE
PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. /05

&&

.MARINE...WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST PLANNING FOR LOCAL RECREATIONAL
BOATING ENTHUSIASTS AND COMMERCIAL OFFSHORE OPERATIONS BECOMING
PROBLEMATIC. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE WEAK AND UNORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TODAY OFF THE FLORIDA KEYS. WHAT'S HAPPENING
ALOFT BECOMES A PLAYER IN THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...WHICH
POSES SOME INTEREST AND FURTHERMORE COMPLICATES WIND AND SEA
FORECASTS. AS A TROF DEVELOPS EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
RESULTANT HIGH LEVEL WEAKENESS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BRINGS SOUTHEAST
GULF SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST...APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND...SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF LOUISIANA
SUNDAY EVENING. WE ARE GOING TO BUMP UP EASTELY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND...WITH A SUBSEQUENT RISE IN SEA STATES DUE TO LONGER FETCH AND
DURATION OF STRONGER WINDS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS WELL. ALSO OF NOTE...EXPECT RIP CURRENT THREAT TO
INCREASE AS WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. /10

What have we got so far....ETA, GFS, and now the UKMET all hopping on this low? Hmmmm, getting interesting, very interesting indeed.