2:05 TWD from NHC

[yoda]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 25N73W...JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...ALONG
A SHEAR AXIS...TO A MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES TO THE
NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO OVER
THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES TO THE EAST OF AN ADVANCING
MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SEPARATE
AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER MEXICO
FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N TO 22.5N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W IN WESTERN CUBA...AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN 15-30 NM RADIUS OF 19N76W
IN THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 90W...INCLUDING
IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...IN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SURFACE
CONFLUENT FLOW.

ONE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF
OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS AN 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N75W...ALONG A 30N74W 25N75W SURFACE
TROUGH...TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAS FORMED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH...AND INTERESTS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 65W AND 78W...AND FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...
AND OVER CUBA ALSO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.

A SECOND SURFACE FEATURE WITH THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS AN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER
TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 24N
BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE EAST
OF 90W. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND THE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.