When will the first Tropical Storm form and where?

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When will 1st Tropical Storm form?

Poll ended at Thu May 01, 2003 1:21 am

MAY 1-15
0
No votes
MAY 16-31
0
No votes
JUNE 1-15
4
27%
JUNE 16-30
10
67%
JULY 1-15
0
No votes
JULY 16-31
1
7%
AUGUST 1-15
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 15
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vbhoutex
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When will the first Tropical Storm form and where?

#1 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Mar 30, 2003 1:21 am

Notice I said Tropical Storm, not Hurricane.

Please vote then state where you think it will form and why in the thread.

I voted and think the 1st TS will form in the GOM along a front between the Yucatan and Brownsville.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 30, 2003 6:50 am

I voted between 16-30 of june for tropical storm Ana to form near the southern coast of Cuba.
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#3 Postby OtherHD » Sun Mar 30, 2003 10:08 am

July 16-31

In the West Atlantic
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#4 Postby mf_dolphin » Sun Mar 30, 2003 10:30 am

Western Carribean June 16-30

Warm waters + low shear = TS Ana
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Sun Mar 30, 2003 12:18 pm

Yeah I said between the 15th and 30th of June as well. Ana may well form somewhere in the triangle from Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and SE Bahamas. But that's simply a guess. Could just as well happen in the GOM, or like in '95 Allison formed in the western Caribbean in late May and headed into the GOM towards the Florida Panhandle on June 1st. So anything can happen. Since we've had such a string of late seasons, think odds favor something starting early, though not a statistically sound statement; just from the gut.
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#6 Postby Kevin_Wx » Sun Mar 30, 2003 12:34 pm

June 16th to the 30th, somewhere around the Bahamas.
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Mar 30, 2003 12:51 pm

I have to agree with the majority here also, and pretty much, I'm thinking along the same lines at vbhoutex. I think Ana will evolve from a decaying frontal boundary somewhere in the GOM around the June 16-30 timeframe.
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#8 Postby wx247 » Sun Mar 30, 2003 2:31 pm

I chose mid-to-late June as well. I think that the Western Carribbean will be where Ana may form. The SSTs will be warm here. Main factor that might inhibit development would be shear. We will see...
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Guest

#9 Postby Guest » Sun Mar 30, 2003 4:10 pm

I said in the June 1-15 time frame. A late season cold front will drop into the gom and a system will form from it in the Central Gulf!

My prediction is 14-7-3!



Hmmmmmm..............Not bad.......
Last edited by Guest on Thu Oct 16, 2003 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#10 Postby Kevin_Wx » Sun Mar 30, 2003 4:15 pm

Just remember...there aren't usually that many fronts that make it all the way down to the Yucatan in June.
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#11 Postby Guest » Sun Mar 30, 2003 4:29 pm

Oh i know that Kevin. But this year has been odd and with such things as the current outbreak of coldweather we have in the east i expect this trend will continue with the fronts down into the gulf atleast into early June.
Anyways it will be fun too see what does happen. Oh and what i meant by central gulf i mean somewhere Ne of the Yucatan and north of the western tip of cuba in the central gulf. :)
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#12 Postby pojo » Sun Mar 30, 2003 5:34 pm

june 1-15 Western Caribbean
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#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Mar 30, 2003 9:05 pm

I havn't the foggiest of ideas. Last May storm was a subtrop in 1997 in the Bahamas. However, I do not know where the first one will form
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#14 Postby OtherHD » Sun Mar 30, 2003 11:14 pm

I said July 16-31.

I feel like such an outcast. :cry:
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#15 Postby Guest » Sat Jun 14, 2003 3:46 pm

And this was the first predictions....:).......Which is why i am bumping this as well....:)
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#16 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Jun 14, 2003 3:54 pm

king of weather wrote:And this was the first predictions....:).......Which is why i am bumping this as well....:)


Umm... King. We were all wrong ... Remember Ana?..*LOL*
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 14, 2003 3:59 pm

SF remember this season will be one of (records) and very different from 2002 and we can't be surprised anymore this year about anything that happens in the atlantic basin.
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ColdFront77

#18 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Jun 14, 2003 4:01 pm

I wouldn't say we were all wrong. Ana formed weeks before the official start of the Hurricane Season. We are going for date and location of Bill, not Ana. :)
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Sat Jun 14, 2003 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#19 Postby Guest » Sat Jun 14, 2003 4:02 pm

I know that SF...............LOL.........This was to remember our first guess before we had ana because alot of our seconds guesses on Bill came from this......:)
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#20 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Jun 14, 2003 4:16 pm

*LOL* ... I'm in that comedic mood today so some reason ...

Right now, Pojo has a shot ...
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