8 AM = Recon may find open wave

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 041147
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED AUG 04 2004

...POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE
...DOMINICA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI LATER TODAY.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
61.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM...WEST ST. LUCIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. THE AIRCRAFT MAY FIND THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION AND DEGENERATED INTO AN
OPEN WAVE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 61.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

This is to prepare the public for the 11 A.M. downgrade:

"The aircraft may find that the system has lost its closed wind circulation and degenerated into an open wave."

Did the TD once had a closed circualtion?

[Hyperstorm]

This is to prepare the public for the 11 A.M. downgrade:

"The aircraft may find that the system has lost its closed wind circulation and degenerated into an open wave."

Did the TD once had a closed circualtion?

This will be a controversial debate, but to tell you a simple answer. Yes, it did have a closed circulation, but well before it was even named a depression. Yesterday, as Derek first pointed out, it was starting to look like a wave. Quickscat also proves this point and we all had trouble finding any east-moving low level clouds. Since that time, the system has only become less organized and even though, overnight it did try to consolidate a little bit, the battle with the fast forward speed, dry air, and UL winds is too strong. Still though, it is a very strong tropical wave and if it can slow down and UL winds subside, this could quickly become something. Keep monitoring!

[cycloneye]

Well said Hyperstorm.

[KatDaddy]

The UKMET could be on to something with the W bias. Weak system = more W. As far-fetched as it is, it has a little better chance of being a GOM system. If it makes it to the Central Caribbean and still is headed W there be some GOM problems in the offing. If it gets under the trough and meanders over the NW Caribbean and SE GOM look-out!

[Air Force Met]

Exactly hyperstorm...it was closed before they pulled the trigger...but then again...a lot of those thigns come off Africa with a closed circulation. I may have been closed for a few hours after they named it. Who knows. The real issue is it is not closed now.

But that creates two other options. 1) It will probably come further west now and 2) It can regenerate...if it slows down.

[chadtm80]

Air Force what do you think about the sheer out ahead of it?

[Air Force Met]

Air Force what do you think about the sheer out ahead of it?

The upper low is progged to move west as well. IF IF IF the system will slow down it will stay just behind the shear...but if it keeps on moving this fast it will plow right into it. I think it will slow down enough in the next 24 hours and the gradient to the north weakens some. Time will tell.

If it weakens enough (the wave)...it will have some winds to contend with over in the western CAR since it should move more westerly.

[rainstorm]

certainly being a wave, it can move more west now

[Guest]

If this is true that TD2 is a wave and it survives its journey westward what are the possibilities of it going up to the GOM and trekking eastward into Florida?

[Air Force Met]

If this is true that TD2 is a wave and it survives its journey westward what are the possibilities of it going up to the GOM and trekking eastward into Florida?

Its still gotta slow down though. The 850 trough is all the way down into Florida. It will be hard for it not to get pulled north...it will just do it further west.

This is not a normal trough for this time of the year...this is like October and just like in October...it will be hard for this to go all the way west...this is one massive trough.

[Air Force Met]

On the 6z run...the front is all the way down to south Florida and drapped across the GOM. Incredible for August...wow.

[Brent]

On the 6z run...the front is all the way down to south Florida and drapped across the GOM. Incredible for August...wow.

Are you sure this is EARLY August?

[Rainband]

Odd year indeed

[Guest]

I still say Global climate change!

[Air Force Met]

On the 6z run...the front is all the way down to south Florida and drapped across the GOM. Incredible for August...wow.

Are you sure this is EARLY August?

Well...I'll take a cold front whenever I can get one. GIve me another month in SE tx and I will be begging for one