Restating the Obvious One Last Time

[MWatkins]

Hard time finding a post to put this in so I will make somebody mad and start a new one.

First of all...it's open wave-o-rama time for TD-2. Zero question...it is simply moving way too fast.

There's plenty of evidence to support that...some of which is already been posted but needs rehashing...

1. A line of thunderstorms has developed out ahead of the system where the LLC was thought to be. These clouds are moving along with the wave to the west...and are not moving in toward the convective envelope...a tell-tale sign. The system is also spreading out horizontally...not consolidating.

2. Recon found nothin'

3. The global models never developed this system.

If anything regenerates it will need to slow down first. The good news for the TPC is they can drop the system at 5:00PM...and if it redevelops they can give it a new number so it doesn't ruin their verification statistics.

MW

[WilloughbyStormWatcher]

so does this mean you believe the TPC will drop it at 5pm??

[ColdFront77]

If they do downgrade it, this is one of those times the chances of regeneration to occur is quite high.

[Brent]

If TD 2 regenerates, it'll still be TD 2.

Anyway, I really thought they would drop it at 11am. The fact is, no LLC means no TD, Bonnie or anything else. I don't care how strong the winds are.

[MWatkins]

If TD 2 regenerates, it'll still be TD 2.

Anyway, I really thought they would drop it at 11am. The fact is, no LLC means no TD, Bonnie or anything else. I don't care how strong the winds are.

I know...just trying to offer a solution to the verification problem. If something regenerates and keeps the same name...the last 5 120 hour forecasts could be upwards of 600 nautical miles off.

Yes...unless there is a dramatic change in the next 2.5 hours it's a goner...and the TPC will downgrade.

MW

[Dean4Storms]

I concur with ya, looks like a TW now with no signs of a LLC at all. We have a MLC east of the advancing line of the TW but no TD at this time.

[Thunder44]

After keeping it a TD at 11am, it wouldn't suprise me if the NHC find a way to keep this a TD at 5pm.

[Guest]

Are we in agreement that we are seeing some type of climate change in the works. Every meterologists and people on this board are saying it is unheard of. The newscasters in C. Florida are saying it is unheard of to have 10% rain chances in August. Are we seeing shifts in fronts and troughs?

[ColdFront77]

I don't believe so. It is impossible for central Florida to have rain chances between 30 and 50 percent and occasionally 50 to 70 percent, even 80 percent (rarely 80 to 100 percent) from late May/early June through late September/early October.