Gulf Lows

[TampaFl]

There appears to be two lows in the Gulf, one just south of Mobile, Al. and the other located just west of Tampa (see eailier AFD Tampa post in prvioue thread from Aquawind), and possibly another just east or located on top of Daytona. Although weak ,they are interesting, just means more heavy rain for the Tampa Bay area and most of West central Fl. See radar and satallite loops below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmob.shtml

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... ktbw.shtml

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml


Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[Stormcenter]

The one under Mobile, AL looks like the one with a more defined circulation and convection right now, very interesting.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[WXBUFFJIM]

Once the upper winds become more favorable, with a 1007 mb low south of Mobile and possibly another low just to the west of Clearwater and Tampa, FL, we'll have to keep a close eye on these. This is something I feared would occur. Now the question is will we see tropical development??? Mostly likely not today with the unfavorable upper wind profile, but it's possible after today and especially into early next week given the very warm/boiling water temps of 88-90 degrees. This is a dangerous area for tropical development this time of year.

Jim

[zoeyann]

The one under mobile lokks stationary, if it is how long will it stay that way and will it help development if it sits awhile

[WXBUFFJIM]

With it sitting awhile over 88-90 degree waters, that alone will definitely help in potentially developing tropically a bit later on. Definitely an interesting area of focus over the next couple of days.

[rbaker]

radar, sat pictures defin. show a low in the e gom . Only thing is pressures are not dropping for anything definitive right now, but will be watching for things to change when northerly shear lessens.

[BayouVenteux]

Below is an excerpt from the early morning AFD out of the Mobile office. Nothing too revelatory, but they do mention the low being forecast by a couple of models to move westward and weaken:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

.SHORT TERM...07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF GIVING WAY TO A SOMEWHAT STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS THE LOW DRIFTS WEST TODAY WINDS WILL SHIFT MOSTLY EAST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS DEPICT THIS LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE ETA SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE. AS A RESULT THE ETA DOES SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT SPREADING WEST THROUGHOUT TO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR PATTERN THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY. WITH THIS WILL GO WITH A MIX OF BOTH THE ETA AND AVN INCREASING CLOUDS SLIGHTLY FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT INTRODUCING MOSTLY SCATTERED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA ON SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS THEY SHOW A MIX OF ETA AND GFS SOMEWHAT ALREADY...

EXTENDED...LOW MOVES WEST ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKENS.

MARINE...WILL GO WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE GULF AND INLAND WATERS. EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATER TODAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

[Aquawind]

Tampa NWS version..lol..no mention of the current lows this time..

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
110 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

.CURRENT...WINDS FROM OCALA TO CEDAR KEY TO BOUY 42036 WERE EAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SFC OBS SHOW COLD FRONT E-W THROUGH
VENICE...DOPPLER SCT TSTMS ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT WITH ISOLD SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH.

.SHORT TERM (TGT-MON)...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FEATURE RACING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE AREAL
COVERAGE OF PCPN SOUTH OF LEVY COUNTY THIS EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH STALLING COLD FRONT NEAR PUNTA GORDA TONIGHT...
THEN BRINGING IT INTO NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (LEVY COUNTY) BY MONDAY.SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ANCHORED IN FORECAST.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO LEVY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW LOWS
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT...70S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A ZONAL PATTERN
ALOFT...FOR A CHANGE...BUT THEN QUICKLY AMPLIFIES INTO ANOTHER EAST
COAST TROUGH BY THU. AT THE SFC...SOME WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER
THE FA BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. HAVE
KEPT THIS TREND IN WITH THE WIND FIELDS...BUT HAVE TWEAKED SPEEDS
DOWN TUE AND WED BECAUSE AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK
LOWS IN THE GULF AND/OR THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE TROUGH. BY WED AFTN
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE KEPT SPEEDS FOR THE NRN WATERS AROUND 10 KTS AS
EXPECT SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT THERE...BUT SHUD LOW DEVELOP MAY
HAVE TO GO A HIGHER.

CLIMO SUGGESTS THAT POPS BE REDUCED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN
FA...HOWEVER WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIKELY TO ROTATE AROUND THE
TROUGH AND THE WEAK SFC TROUGH...EXPECT RAINY PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN
THE LONG TERM AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH-END SCT POPS LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL KEEP. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP MAX (MIN) TEMPS AROUND OR
JUST BELOW (ABOVE) CLIMO.

[Nimbus]

What a wimpy cold front already starting to creap back north! It is common for more than one impulse to form along stalled fronts, but it is usually the area closest to the end of the front that develops into a storm. Surface pressures are rising in the western gulf so looks like the area just south of Alabama will be the best candidate.

We should see some winds from the south at the buoys to the east of any center of circulation that develops.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow! The one south of Mobile is looking pretty good. Definetly needs to be watched, though it doesn't exactly have all the time in the world...

[Rainband]

I agree time is not on it's side. Being it's not tropical in nature...it needs time.....and it doesn't have it *sigh*

[ColdFront77]

radar, sat pictures defin. show a low in the e gom . Only thing is pressures are not dropping for anything definitive right now, but will be watching for things to change when northerly shear lessens.

True, pressures aren't dropping in the Gulf of Mexico today, but they certainly did yesterday and other days this past week... they can easily start to fall again with that cold front/stationary front over those very warm waters.

[ColdFront77]

Check this out.....


The Villages, FL - 2:45 PM: Temperature: 82°F | Dewpoint: 79°F | Wind: NE 15 G 24

.....Leesburg, FL - 2:53 PM: Temperature: 86°F | Dewpoint: 74°F | Wind: NE 16 G 23


I am located in The Villages. Leesburg is 10 to 15 miles south of me, (about a half hour drive).

[Nimbus]

Until the wind blows from the south at this buoy-

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42039

There is no closed surface circulation south of Mobile.