Same System, Different Tracks

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HURAKAN
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Same System, Different Tracks

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 07, 2004 5:07 pm

According to PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility), the system to the east of the mentioned archipelago and country is moving in a complete westward motion as you can see in the graphic below. They have even named the system "Karen", with winds around 40 mph / 65 kph.

Image

But the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has a different point of view, they say that the system is moving basicly northward, as you can see in the graphic below, and it's a tropical depression, TD 16W. Also, they forecast the system to affect the southern most islands of Japan.

Image
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#2 Postby The Dark Knight » Sat Aug 07, 2004 5:38 pm

Excellent map(the top one).......Great graphics...
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Derek Ortt

#3 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 07, 2004 5:51 pm

JTWC has had some atrocious forecasts this year. I'd trust the Phillipenes (who have the official responsibility in the region) over JTWC
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#4 Postby Derecho » Sun Aug 08, 2004 3:02 pm

Heh...

Followed this one, looks like an embarassing failure for PAGASA, and a good job by JTWC (note that the original PAGASA track in the first post...west into Luzon...is no longer showing, as their maps have updated).

No idea what the Philipinos did, besides maybe see a bit of convection moving west in a disorganized storm and make a newbie-type mistake.
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